Ukraine has started using Flamingo cruise missiles, which cost about $500,000 – Media

Ukraine continues to inflict deadly damage on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and the pace is accelerating. Coordinated attacks by Ukrainian drones and Flamingo cruise missiles on oil refineries and other parts of the Russian fuel distribution system began in August, and the number of strikes is increasing from two to three per week to four to five, writes UNN with reference to The Economist.

DetailsThe publication notes that such attacks may soon become daily. In the past week, Ukraine has severely damaged a large oil export terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, an oil refining complex in Bashkortostan (more than 1300 km from Ukraine), and a pumping station in Chuvashia, 1000 km away.

A large oil refinery in Yaroslavl was hit on October 1, but the Russians claim it was “technical” damage, not caused by a drone attack. On September 25, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, referring to a broader “Deep Strike” campaign that hit 85 “important” targets in less than two months, stated: “The capabilities of the enemy’s military-industrial complex have significantly decreased; we can see this on the battlefield.”

But while General Syrskyi pointed to attacks on military infrastructure and weapons factories, it is the relentless focus on oil refineries that is most changing the narrative of the war, even seemingly helping to change US President Donald Trump’s mind about Ukraine’s prospects.

In late August, Reuters reported that about 17% of Russia’s refining capacity had been at least temporarily taken offline. That figure is certainly higher now. Some unconfirmed reports suggest that up to 40% of this capacity has been affected, with about 20% simultaneously reduced. This represents a loss of more than 1 million barrels per day, according to the research group Energy Aspects. Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center warns that the numbers are dynamic, as most facilities can be repaired. However, he admits that what is happening now is on a different scale than previous campaigns.

Benedict George, head of European refined products at Argus Media, an energy market research company, says that Ukraine has hit 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries, and that while repairs are possible, the damage becomes long-lasting when refineries are repeatedly attacked. Some, he says, have been hit up to three times. These include one of Russia’s largest fuel refineries in Ryazan, 200 km from Moscow, which can normally produce 340,000 barrels per day. The destruction of cracking units, which break down crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, is a major complication because they are very expensive, and the sanctions regime makes them extremely difficult to replace.

George assures that diesel exports are 30% lower than a year ago and are at their lowest level since 2020. As Russia is the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, wholesale prices are rising sharply. The impact is also being felt in a growing number of regions of Russia with long queues, a kilometer or more long, for petroleum products at gas stations from Vladivostok in the Far East to the Volga near Moscow. Some authorities are introducing rationing. Russian-occupied Crimea has been particularly hard hit, where motorists are limited to buying 30 liters of fuel.

In response to the growing crisis, on September 25, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced both a partial ban on diesel exports and an extension of a previous ban on gasoline exports until the end of the year.

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According to Vakulenko, who until 2022 was the strategy director of the oil and gas giant Gazprom Neft, independent Russian energy companies and speculators in the oil market are feeling the pressure particularly acutely. The oil product markets, he says, have become “extremely agitated.” According to open-source analysis, in 2023, Russia’s oil product exports amounted to $52.1 billion.

Oil pumping stations and depots have also been hit by Ukrainian strikes, including a massive attack in mid-September on Primorsk, Russia’s largest oil transshipment port on the Baltic Sea. However, according to Mr. Vakulenko, such facilities are more difficult to damage irrevocably, and so far there is little indication of a reduction in Russian crude oil exports. But crude oil exports are a much less profitable business for Russia than selling refined products.

“The Ukrainians are on the rise. The Russians have a problem. They can’t stop it, and the Ukrainians have no reason to stop,” says Lawrence Freedman, a British strategist.

Part of the problem facing the Russians is the sheer number of available targets, the size of the territory over which they are dispersed, and the degradation of Russian air defense capabilities after more than three years of war. Although the one-way attack drones used by the Ukrainians fly relatively slowly and carry warheads weighing only 60 to 120 kg, they have the range and accuracy to inflict serious damage.

About 60% of deep strikes on Russian territory are carried out by Ukrainian Fire Point FP-1 drones, which, with a smaller payload, can reach targets up to 1500 km inside Russia and have sophisticated software resistant to intense electronic jamming. But critically, notes Olena Kryzhanivska, an expert on Ukrainian weapons systems, FP-1s cost only about $55,000 each, and are now being produced at a rate of over 100 per day. Ukraine also uses the heavier and more expensive Lyutyi drone, which has a range of 2000 km, and a battle-proven machine vision system to guide it to its target.

There are also reports that the Ukrainians have started using FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles. They are much faster than drones, fly at an altitude of only 50 meters above the ground, have a range of over 3,000 km, and have enormous destructive power thanks to a 1150 kg warhead. If the FP-5 proves capable of penetrating Russian air defenses, it will take Ukraine’s DeepStrike campaign to a new level of destructiveness. Its range allows it to deceive defenses by flying along constantly changing vectors to its target. Fire Point’s FP-5s use recycled Soviet-era turbofan engines, and their carbon fiber fuselage takes only six hours to produce.

Fire Point currently produces two or three FP-5s per day, but this is expected to increase to seven later this month. Each cruise missile costs about $500,000. In comparison, the American Tomahawk missile costs four times as much, has a shorter range, and carries a much smaller payload, although it is likely more accurate and harder to shoot down.

While Russia’s strategic air campaign is primarily focused on terrorizing cities, Ukraine’s is aimed directly at Russia’s ability to sustain the war. As Mr. Vakulenko notes, it is not going to “bring Russia’s economy to a screeching halt.” But the damage to the revenues on which Russia depends to fuel its war will only worsen. And ordinary Russians are increasingly feeling that the war is coming to them.

AdditionIn recent days, Ukraine has been using exclusively Ukrainian-made products, and not only drones, against Russian targets. This was stated by Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a press conference with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof.