Trump's control over Venezuela's oil threatens OPEC's influence, Washington to own 30% of market – WSJ

Donald Trump’s ambition to establish control over Venezuela’s oil industry poses critical risks for the OPEC cartel. The US president’s initiative to restore Venezuelan oil fields aims to lower global prices to $50 per barrel, which directly threatens the revenues of traditional oil exporters. This is stated in an article by The Wall Street Journal, writes UNN.

DetailsAccording to JPMorgan’s estimates, the consolidation of US, Guyanese, and Venezuelan capacities will allow Washington to control about 30% of the global raw materials market.

New White House Strategy and Market ReactionTrump’s inner circle is considering increasing Venezuela’s oil production from the current 1 million to 3 million barrels per day within the next three years. This will require massive investments, but even the short-term expectation of increased supply is putting pressure on a market already suffering from an oil surplus.

Against this backdrop, OPEC and Russia have already changed tactics. At a meeting on Sunday, January 11, the alliance members decided to suspend any increase in production during the first quarter of 2026 to prevent prices from falling further.

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Position of Saudi Arabia and ChinaSaudi Arabia maintains a wait-and-see approach, citing the critical state of Venezuelan infrastructure, the restoration of which will take years. At the same time, some OPEC members see potential benefits in Trump’s actions: if the US cuts off Venezuelan oil supplies to China, Beijing will be forced to increase purchases from Persian Gulf countries.

This shift could give the US greater influence over oil markets, potentially keeping prices historically lower and altering the balance of power on the international stage.

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