“The National Bank predicts a slowdown in inflation to 9.2% at the end of 2025, and according to the results of 2026 – to 6.6%”, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
The bank predicts that the indicator will continue to decline due to the effects of higher grain and vegetable harvests, as well as “relative tightening” of monetary policy.
At the same time, the regulator notes, the fundamental price pressure remains stable due to the difficult situation on the labor market and rising wages, which increases production costs and prices for services.
Read also: Reparation money for Ukraine. Will Europe succumb to the intimidation of the Russian GRU?
“Additional pressure on prices may cause energy shortages. Inflationary expectations of the population and business remain quite high. The need to level war risks and bring inflation to target levels will require the NBU to maintain a relatively high real interest rate,” the summary states.
The National Bank points out that maintaining the discount rate will support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, in particular due to the increase in real rates for hryvnia deposits and domestic government loan bonds.
“The National Bank predicts a slowdown in inflation to 9.2% at the end of the year, and according to the results of 2026 – to 6.6%. The reduction of the discount rate may begin in the 1st quarter of 2026,” the institution assumes.
On December 12, the National Bank decided to keep the discount rate at the level of 15.5% per annum.
