“The International Energy Agency predicts a significant surplus of oil on the world market in 2026, which could reach 4 million barrels per day. The reason is the weak demand against the background of the increase in the production of OPEC+ and other producers”, — write: www.radiosvoboda.org
This comes amid rising production by members of the OPEC+ oil cartel and other producers at a time when demand remains weak.
The agency revised down its previous forecast for 2026 of a crude glut of about 3.3 million barrels per day. The 4 million bpd surplus represents nearly 4% of global demand and is much larger than other analysts’ forecasts.
“Oil consumption will remain moderate through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, leading to a projected annual increase of around 700,000 barrels per day in both years,” the IEA said in its monthly report.
Last Friday, oil prices fell sharply – against the background a new escalation of the trade war between the US and China. On October 14, the price of benchmark Brent oil, which had partially recovered at the beginning of the week, fell again to the level of slightly more than 62 dollars per barrel. Against this background, the Russian grade of Urals is trading slightly above 58 dollars per barrel, which deprives the Russian budget of additional income.
