The government forecasts a significant trade deficit for the next three years: what are the two scenarios?

The government expects a trade deficit of $34.71 billion under the best-case scenario and $44.46 billion under the worst-case scenario in 2026, UNN reports, citing government resolution No. 946 of August 6.

DetailsThe government also approved a trade deficit forecast of $33.61 billion under the first scenario and $36.24 billion under the second scenario for 2027; $32.95 billion and $33.93 billion, respectively, for 2028.

Exports of goods and services are expected to be:

under the first scenario:

• 2026 – $66.25 billion (+14.3% compared to the previous year);
• 2027 – $76.31 billion (+15.2%);
• 2028 – $85.93 billion (+12.6%).

under the second scenario:

• 2026 – $61.38 billion (+5.9%);
• 2027 – $69.96 billion (+14%);
• 2028 – $80.46 billion (+15%).

Imports of goods and services are expected to be:

under the first scenario:

• 2026 – $100.96 billion (+2.7% compared to the previous year);
• 2027 – $109.92 billion (+8.9%);
• 2028 – $118.88 billion (+8.2%).

under the second scenario:

• 2026 – $105.84 billion (+7.6%);
• 2027 – $106.2 billion (+0.3%);
• 2028 – $114.39 billion (+7.7%).

Foreign trade deficit increased by a third: what was traded and with whom07.08.25, 17:47 • 2432 views