Russian economy enters a phase of controlled chaos – intelligence

The Russian financial and institutional system is sinking deeper into a state of managed chaos: spheres are becoming increasingly opaque, control is reduced to manual management, and openness is virtually disappearing. This is reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU), according to UNN.

DetailsIt is noted that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has recognized the de facto collapse of disclosure standards: from 2027, financial organizations plan to be obliged to publish only anonymized data on ownership structure.

According to the FISU, after 2022, banks and insurers were allowed not to disclose information about owners and management, citing sanction risks.

The result is that out of 352 credit organizations, only three banks, or less than 1%, currently disclose their ownership structure. The “compromise” proposed by the regulator provides for formal “yes/no” answers regarding the presence of individuals with significant influence, “unfriendly” non-residents, or problematic beneficiaries, with the form to be filled out by the central bank itself. This emphasizes that the market is unable to ensure even minimal openness without manual control. The regulatory framework is promised to be adopted in 2026 and launched no earlier than April 2027.

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports that, in parallel, the state is moving in the opposite direction in other areas. A package of bills has been submitted to the State Duma that abolishes regular income declarations for Russian civil servants. Deputies and senators called this a “step in the fight against corruption,” which only widens the gap between rhetoric and real control mechanisms.

Against the backdrop of institutional degradation, economic tensions are escalating. A third of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs in the Russian Federation do not rule out closing their businesses within six months. Banks have sharply reduced consumer lending: POS loans are approved for only one in ten clients, and the share of rejections in November reached up to 90%. At the same time, pawnshops received 9.6 billion rubles in net profit from January to September – 54% more than a year earlier, which is an indirect indicator of the decline in the population’s solvency.

Financial problems have also affected the public sector. In 2025, the volume of non-payments by state-owned companies to businesses for public procurement contracts increased 2.7 times: from 200 cases for 1.5 billion rubles in 2024 to 548 cases for almost 4.03 billion rubles. Companies delay payments for one to three months, effectively borrowing at the expense of contractors. The reasons are falling revenues and high borrowing costs.

An additional signal of disorder was the cyber sphere: 73% of all data leaks in 2025 occurred in the public sector itself. Business and employee expectations are also bleak: only 13% of Russians expect to receive an annual bonus.

“Collectively, these trends form a picture of a market that is increasingly moving away from global standards and is preserved in a state of closedness, distrust, and systemic chaos,” the intelligence service added.

RecallRussian dictator Putin voiced a set of propaganda theses about “almost full employment,” “low unemployment,” and an “inevitable technological breakthrough.” These statements are intended to create an image of well-being against the backdrop of war and sanctions.

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