“Are there reasons for the crypto market to grow in 2025 and how does Trump’s victory affect it?”, — write: epravda.com.ua
Despite all the big falls, mistrust from governments and regulators, skeptical attitude of private investors and accusations of a “bubble”, Bitcoin breaks its own records every few years in a row and becomes an increasingly significant part of the modern financial world. But what awaits him and the entire market in the new year 2025? The year 2024 started for Bitcoin at $43,000 – after a two-year lull and falling to $16,000, within 14 months it has regained some of its positions. The first reason for this was the waiting for approval, and then the launch of spot Bitcoin-ETFs in the USA – classic BTC-based funds. The event marked a milestone in the adoption of cryptocurrencies at the state level – all amid years of pressure from the US Securities and Exchange Commission on the industry. On the day of the launch of the Bitcoin-ETF, the volume of fund trading reached $4.5 billion. During the year, ETF issuers already accumulated 6.22% of the entire BTC issue. Of them, 74% belong to the three largest funds – Blackrock, Fidelity and Grayscale. The success of BTC-based ETFs has led to the rapid launch of ETH-based funds, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency on the Ethereum blockchain. They were launched already in July 2024. By the end of the year, the total assets under management of Bitcoin-ETF exceeded $70 billion – 53% of the gold-based ETF ($138 billion), which was launched in 2004. Read also: Bitcoin on the way to $100,000: global trends and prospects of crypto-regulation in Ukraine Advertisement: Already in March 2024, the Bitcoin rate broke the 2021 record ($69,000) in anticipation of the halving. Halving is an algorithm for halving miners’ rewards every 210,000 blocks and is a highly anticipated event in the crypto world. At a block creation rate of once every ~10 minutes, it happens every four years – this time it happened on April 20, 2024. A decrease in the reward of miners means a decrease in the number of mined coins – the emission of BTC is limited to 21 million, of which more than 19 million have been mined to date. At the same time, their “mining” will continue until approximately 2140. This leads to a decrease in supply, which causes an increase in demand and the value of the asset. Each of the three previous halvings (2012, 2016, and 2020) caused Bitcoin (and subsequently the entire market) to surge for ~500 days. The fourth halving of 2024 is no exception. But this time, the market started to rise already on expectations, as investors realized the effect of the Bitcoin halving. But this effect is not instantaneous. In all cases, the main phase of growth occurred in the year following the halving – 2013, 2017, 2021. From a historical point of view, 2025 should not be an exception. Many predictions, which we will talk about, are based on this.Advertisement: The last important event for the crypto market, not surprisingly, was the election in the USA. The market lives on expectations. And the victory of Kamala Harris in the community was perceived as a negative factor for cryptocurrencies (or at least the continuation of pressure from the SEC), and the victory of Donald Trump (who received donations in virtual assets and traded NFTs) – as a positive factor and a softening of policy in the field. As a result, in November 2024, Donald Trump became the new president of the United States. This caused euphoria in the crypto world and launched the growth of Bitcoin – within a month its rate increased from $67,000 to $100,000. The price peaked at $106,000. During the first week after the election, the rate immediately increased by $21,000 – the best weekly increase in history and the best daily gain ($8,000). What’s more, in addition to the “pro-cryptocurrency” president, the largest number of crypto supporters also went to the US Congress and Senate – they received 219/327 seats. Since his victory, Trump has also appointed people who own and support cryptocurrency to key positions and promised to replace the head of the SEC. The historic year for the crypto world ended with a correction – the BTC rate dropped to $92,000 in anticipation of the inauguration of a new president and the desired halving effect. 2025: expectations and prospects for development The new year began with another overcoming of the $100,000 mark. Is there a rally ahead? To begin with, let’s look at forecasts based on previous cycles of the crypto market: In Copper, the average duration of the bull cycle was calculated – about 756 days from the local minimum to the peak values. From the moment the bottom was formed (in November 2022), according to their estimation, the cycle will reach its peak in May 2025. According to CoinMarketCap Research, the path to the top of the cycle is 518 to 546 days after the halving, but this time ahead of the usual dynamics by about a hundred days As a result, according to their assessment, the peak is in May-June 2025. ETC Group believes that the peak of the market usually occurs approximately 400 days after the halving. From April 20, 2024, this day will fall on May 2025. So, regardless of the reference point, experts agree that the peak of the Bitcoin rate (and therefore the entire market) will occur in 2025. Let’s look at other thoughts. Galaxy Research believes BTC will reach $150,000 in the first half and test $185,000 in Q4 2025. BTC capitalization is 20% gold. CoinShares estimates the Bitcoin rate in the range of $80,000 to $150,000 depending on the fulfillment of Donald Trump’s campaign promises. CryptoQuant’s CEO believes the “2025 bull cycle” will be the longest in history as new sources of liquidity fuel the market. Arthur Hayes and CIO Bitwise Jeff Park expect the price of Bitcoin to rise to $1 million – the first in the event of a jump in money emission against the background of high inflation, the second – in the event of the creation of a BTC reserve in the USA. However, these forecasts go beyond one year. The last point brings us to what may await the crypto market in 2025. A cryptocurrency government will be formed in the US, which will lead to an increase in the level of adoption of digital assets in the country and around the world and lead to the launch of adequate regulation that takes into account the specifics of the industry. SEC to change policy on cryptocurrencies and approve new ETFs. For example, based on Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL). At the beginning of December, Trump appointed the ex-COO of PayPal to the position of “crypto king”, who will be responsible for the development of the industry. This is the first position of this kind in the country. In 2025, ETF issuers, companies, pension funds and even governments will continue to accumulate BTC in their accounts as a reserve “asset of the future”. For example, MicroStrategy has already purchased almost 450,000 BTC for $44 billion. She is increasing her portfolio every week and plans to raise even more funds. Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has 75,354 BTC on balance for $7 billion. Metaplanet holds 1,762 BTC, but plans to increase the reserves to 100,000 BTC. Salvador buys 1 BTC every day – his reserves are already above 6,000 BTC. Ethiopia has invested $1 billion in hydropower mining. Michael Saylor, the head of the same MicroStrategy, published a list of 60 companies with the largest Bitcoin reserves – their total amount at the end of 2024 is almost 600,000 BTC. He is sure that Apple and Microsoft will join this list in 2025. According to CryptoQuant, 31% of BTC is in the hands of countries, ETFs and MicroStrategy, which is 14% more than in 2024 and this trend will continue in 2025. In 2025, the question of creating a BTC reserve in the US at the level of a state or, at least, several states, will be seriously considered. The ex-CEO of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, believes that a race has already begun between countries to buy Bitcoin and approve BTC reserves. If this happens, the Bitcoin rate will receive an extremely powerful incentive to grow. In addition to global perspectives, it is important to note less significant factors that will contribute to the development of the industry in 2025. For example, in Forbe s note: Growth of capitalization of stablecoins above $400 billion (in January 2025 — $200 billion). L2 networks based on Bitcoin and Ethereum will accelerate the development of the DeFi ecosystem. The US will regain its position as the global center of cryptocurrencies thanks to a policy change, and the largest corporations will add BTC to their investment portfolios. You can also expect an acceleration of cryptocurrency adoption through the development of tools for working outside of exchanges and using them in everyday life (crypto cards, like Trustee Plus or ByBit). In 2024, the number of owners of virtual assets was 617 million. Despite all this, it is important to remember that Bitcoin and the crypto market are cyclical – after rapid growth, it always goes into the “winter” phase. But you should not worry. In December 2020, when BTC was worth $23,000, Changpeng Zhao wrote the following: “Waiting for a new headline: Bitcoin falls from $101,000 to $85,000. Save the tweet.” In 2022, the price of $16,000 was the bottom of the market and cause for panic, but in 2017 it was first a dream and then a historical record. Today, we know for sure that despite the fall, there are still many new crypto summits ahead.