OPEC forecasts near balance of oil supply and demand in 2026

Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), published on Thursday, indicate that in 2026, global oil supply will almost entirely meet demand, contradicting forecasts of a significant surplus from the International Energy Agency (IEA), writes UNN.

DetailsOPEC forecasts that the average demand for OPEC+ oil in 2026 will be 43 million barrels per day, which is close to the production level recorded in November (43.06 million barrels per day). According to Reuters calculations based on the report, if the production level remains unchanged, the surplus will be only 60 thousand barrels per day.

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This OPEC forecast sharply contrasts with the IEA’s assessment, which on the same day suggested that the global supply surplus next year could reach almost 3.84 million barrels per day.

The OPEC+ group plans to pause production growth in the first quarter of 2026 amid general expectations of a surplus. OPEC also kept its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 unchanged, stating that the global economy is on a solid footing.

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