Oil prices rose amid US tariff exemptions and China’s import recovery

Oil prices rose on Monday after the US excluded some tariffs, and data from China showed a sharp increase in oil imports in March, but the rise was limited by concerns that the trade war between the US and China could weaken global economic growth and reduce demand for fuel, UNN writes with reference to Reuters.

DetailsBrent crude futures rose 8 cents, or 0.12%, to $64.84 a barrel at 08:22 GMT (11:22 Kyiv time). West Texas Intermediate crude rose 10 cents, or 0.16%, to $61.60.

“News of tariff exemptions helped lift sentiment in the markets,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of global research at Onyx Capital Group. “But there is still a lot of volatility; there is political risk around this volatile approach to trade that continues to put pressure on markets.”

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Against the background of the abolition of tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods, Trump said on Sunday that he would announce a tariff rate on imported semiconductors next week.

China’s oil imports in March rose sharply compared to the previous two months and rose almost 5% compared to a year earlier, data showed on Monday, boosted by Iranian oil and a recovery in supplies from Russia.

However, Brent and WTI have lost about $10 a barrel since the beginning of the month, and analysts have lowered oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies has intensified.

Goldman Sachs expects the average Brent crude price to be $63 and the average WTI crude price to be $59 by the end of 2025, with the average Brent crude price at $58 and WTI crude at $55 in 2026.

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In the fourth quarter of 2025, global oil demand will grow by only 300,000 barrels per day year-on-year, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in their note, adding that the slowdown in demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical raw materials.

The Brent crude oil price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 also moved into contango, as investors factored in oversupply and demand concerns, BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, said. In the contango market, prices for the nearest month are lower than prices for future months, indicating a lack of supply deficit, the publication writes.

Against the background of companies preparing for a possible decline in demand, the number of drilling rigs in the US for oil and gas production decreased for the third week in a row last week, according to data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes.

Potentially supporting oil prices, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that the United States could stop exports of Iranian oil as part of Trump’s plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program.

Both countries held “positive” and “constructive” talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to resume them next week, officials said over the weekend.

“This could help eliminate some of the sanctions risk affecting the oil market, especially if talks continue to move in the right direction,” ING analysts said in their note.

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