“Oil prices jumped sharply amid fears of a wider war following Israel’s attack on IranBrent crude rose to $78 a barrel, the biggest jump since 2022. Israel has struck Iran’s nuclear program, raising fears of oil
supply disruptions.”, — write: unn.ua
DetailsBrent crude exceeded $78 a barrel, the biggest intraday jump since March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Rapid temporary spreads widened and the shape of the futures curve indicated fears of a protracted conflict, while volatility increased. Gold became a beneficiary of demand for safe-haven assets, heading for a record.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks were aimed at Tehran’s nuclear program and army and would continue until the threat was eliminated.
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Iran vowed to take drastic measures, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said several commanders and scientists had been killed. Hours after the first Israeli strikes, Tehran launched more than 100 drones in response, Israel said.
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“We are once again in an environment of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, which keeps the oil market on edge and requires it to start pricing in a higher risk premium in the event of any potential supply disruptions,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Groep NV.
The rapid rise in oil prices has wiped out losses from the beginning of the year caused by the consequences of growing tensions in world trade and OPEC+’s decision to restore suspended capacity at a faster-than-expected pace. This week, JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned that prices could reach $130 a barrel in the worst-case scenario in the Middle East.
The Brent time spread – the difference between the two nearest contracts – has widened further. The gap reached $1.61 a barrel, up from 92 cents on Thursday. Another indicator, the spread between the contract for December this year and the same month in 2026, jumped to over $2 from 50 cents. Volatility of oil options rose to a three-year high.
Iranian television reported that smoke was spotted near the Tabriz refinery, although the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Co. said the attacks did not cause any damage to the country’s refineries and storage facilities, according to the state news agency IRNA.
A sustained rise in energy prices could lead to global inflation, complicating the task facing central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, amid politicians’ efforts to cope with the fallout from the US-led trade war.
Saudi Arabia – the de facto leader of the wider OPEC+ alliance – called for an immediate end to Israel’s attacks on Iran, which is across the Persian Gulf from Riyadh.
While the market is primarily concerned that supplies may be disrupted by escalating hostilities, OPEC+ member countries still have strong spare capacity that can be used. In addition, the International Energy Agency may decide to coordinate the release of emergency reserves to try to calm prices.
“OPEC+ spare capacity has the potential to address losses in Iranian production,” said Mukesh Sadhev, head of commodity markets – oil at Rystad Energy A/S. However, Tehran’s potential retaliatory measures, including a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, could complicate the use of spare capacity, he added.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which about a quarter of the world’s oil trade passes. Over the years, Iran has repeatedly attacked merchant ships crossing this narrow point and has even threatened to block the strait in the past.
The US and Iran were scheduled to hold a sixth round of nuclear talks in Oman on Sunday, and US President Donald Trump told Fox News that he hoped Tehran would still return to the negotiating table. Earlier this week, he said he was less certain that the US would reach a deal with Tehran to curb its nuclear ambitions in exchange for easing sanctions.
The US was not involved in the attacks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. Earlier this week, they ordered some staff to leave their embassy in Baghdad after Tehran threatened to strike US assets in the region in the event of an attack. In addition, the State Department said that US government employees and their family members in Israel are prohibited from leaving the cities.
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“Risk appetite among oil investors is likely to be tested today, with tremendous volatility and uncertainty,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte. Escalating conflict increases the risk of oil supply disruptions as well as pollution, she said.