“Not a collapse, but a correction: what’s happening with the exchange rate and what to expect nextAt the beginning of the year, the hryvnia began to weaken against the dollar and euro due to seasonal factors and the influence of
external financing. A fintech expert predicts a gradual weakening of the hryvnia without sharp collapses.
”, — write: unn.ua
As of January 12, the National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar exchange rate at UAH 43.07, and the euro at UAH 50.14. In exchange offices and bank branches, foreign currency is slightly more expensive.
Reasons for the rise in the dollar and euro exchange ratesAccording to Sosedka, the current exchange rate dynamics are natural and do not indicate a sharp change in the macro-financial situation.
The main reason for the rise in exchange rates is the seasonal factor. At the beginning of the year, demand for foreign currency traditionally increases from businesses that resume import purchases, make payments under foreign contracts, and close logistics payments. In addition, the population also becomes more active, often converting savings into currency after the holidays. This increases pressure on the hryvnia and the national currency depreciates
No less impact on the exchange rate, according to the fintech expert, is the structure of the Ukrainian economy in wartime conditions and a significant budget deficit.
Olena Sosedka explained that the hryvnia is very sensitive to the volume and regularity of external financing. Any pauses or delays in the receipt of international aid are immediately factored into market expectations and reflected in the currency price, even if there are no real problems with reserves.
The foreign exchange market lives on expectations. If there are fears that funds will arrive unevenly, this automatically creates additional demand for currency
The fintech expert added that the National Bank continues to smooth out sharp fluctuations with the help of currency interventions, but at the same time does not restrain the gradual weakening of the hryvnia. This approach, in her opinion, is conscious, as it allows avoiding shock and at the same time adapting the economy to high military expenditures, trade deficit, and inflationary risks. In this sense, a slow rise in the exchange rate is not a crisis signal, but rather an element of balancing the financial system, believes Olena Sosedka.
It is important, according to the fintech expert, to pay attention not only to the ratio of the hryvnia to the dollar or euro, but also to track the fluctuations of the euro-dollar pair. Since a significant part of imports, including energy carriers and equipment, is tied to the euro, its strengthening in world markets automatically affects the domestic exchange rate and prices.
Currency exchange rate forecastOlena Sosedka advises avoiding panic assessments in further currency exchange rate forecasts. According to her, the baseline scenario for 2026 envisages a gradual weakening of the hryvnia without sharp collapses. Exchange rate waves are possible during periods of peak budget payments, active import purchases, or against the backdrop of news regarding international financial support, but they are, according to her, quite predictable and seasonal. At the same time, in the absence of force majeure and provided that assistance from partners is maintained, there are no grounds for a sharp devaluation.
The hryvnia will continue to be under pressure, but it will be a controlled process. This is not about a collapse, but about a gradual correction to which the market has already adapted
At the same time, she predicts that the dollar exchange rate will be in the corridor of 44-46 hryvnias per dollar, with possible short-term jumps during periods of peak demand for currency. Provided that military risks and high budget expenditures are maintained, the dollar may approach the level of 47-48 hryvnias by the end of the year.
As for the euro, according to Olena Sosedka’s forecasts, its dynamics will be more volatile due to the influence of the global market. In the baseline scenario, the euro exchange rate this year will fluctuate within 49-52 hryvnias.
To buy or not to buy dollars and euros?Commenting on the question of whether Ukrainians should buy currency now, Olena Sosedka advises being guided not by emotions, but by financial goals and planning.
According to her, massively buying currency with all your money at peak exchange rates is not the best strategy, which carries the risk of fixing a non-optimal price.
At the same time, Olena Sosedka emphasizes that for medium- and long-term goals, including forming a financial cushion, planning large expenses, gradual acquisition of currency is justified.
This is not about speculation, but about protecting purchasing power. In this case, you should buy currency in parts, and spread purchases over time
Separately, she drew attention to the structure of savings. According to Olena Sosedka, one should not keep everything in one currency, it is better to diversify risks, when part of the savings is kept in hryvnia, and part in foreign currency.