NBU: inflation rose to 14.6% in March, but the trend towards slowing down is already noticeable

In March 2025, consumer inflation in Ukraine rose to 14.6% year-on-year, which is slightly higher than the January forecast. This is stated in the Inflation Report of the National Bank of Ukraine, reports UNN.

Details”During the first quarter of 2025, consumer inflation was expected to increase – in March it accelerated to 14.6% y/y (compared to 12.0% y/y in December 2024). These rates slightly exceeded the NBU’s forecast in the January 2025 Inflation Report,” the report says.

As reported, the main reason for the increase in prices remained the low domestic supply of food due to weak last year’s harvests. At the same time, the impact of this factor was mostly realized at the end of last year and its residual effects are currently observed, the regulator noted.

“The effect of these effects will gradually disappear due to the expansion of supply in view of the receipt of new crops, in particular greenhouse products and household products,” the NBU reports.

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At the same time, fundamental inflation factors, as indicated, remain: core inflation rose to 12.4% y/y in March (from 10.7% in December). According to the NBU, it is fueled by the increase in business production costs due to the war – in particular, for salaries and energy resources, as well as high consumer demand. The increase in the price of services became an additional evidence of domestic price pressure.

Inflation in annual terms will moderately increase over the coming months due to the low base of comparison last year, but the inflationary impulse has almost exhausted itself… In the summer, the growth of prices in annual terms will begin to slow down for a wide range of goods and services. The expected increase in yields will contribute to a decrease in food inflation from the third quarter of 2025 and its stabilization at a relatively low level in the future

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According to the information, the fundamental inflationary pressure will gradually subside under the influence of the NBU’s monetary policy, the improvement of the electricity supply situation and the more moderate pressure from the labor market. In addition, an additional factor will be the decrease in oil prices due to the cooling effect on the global economy of trade confrontations, the National Bank noted.

As a result, inflation at the end of 2025 will decrease to 8.7%, and in 2026 – to the target of 5%

Let us remind you Earlier, the State Statistics Service reported that in March 2025, inflation amounted to 1.5%, since the beginning of the year – 3.5%. The prices of eggs (18%), clothing, footwear (13%), and fruits (up to 6.6%) increased the most.