NBU forecasts inflation to slow to 8.4% this year

In 2025, inflation in Ukraine will peak in the second quarter, but, according to the National Bank, it will begin to slow down in the middle of the year. This was stated by the head of the National Bank Andriy Pyshnyi, UNN reports.

Thanks to the exhaustion of temporary factors of price pressure and the NBU’s interest rate and exchange rate policy measures, inflation will slow to 8.4% in 2025 and to the 5% target in 2026,

According to him, inflation is likely to continue to rise in the first months of 2025 due to the continued influence of both temporary factors, in particular the effects of last year’s lower harvests, and fundamental factors, in particular pressure from business production costs. 

Inflation will peak in the second quarter, but will start to decline in the middle of the year.

Inflation is expected to decelerate to 8.4% by the end of 2025, and to the 5% target in 2026. This will be supported by the NBU’s interest rate and exchange rate policies, as well as higher harvests, an improvement in the energy sector, a reduction in the fiscal deficit, and moderate external price pressures,

Recall 

The National Bank of Ukraine raised its key policy rate on January 24 to 14.5%, a 1% increase over the previous rate.