“National Bank forecasts increase in electricity deficit and revised the need for gas imports: detailsThe National Bank of Ukraine has raised its estimate of the electricity deficit to 3% in 2026, which will slow down GDP growth.
”, — write: unn.ua
Details”The sharp intensification of shelling of energy infrastructure and production facilities by the Russian Federation at the end of the third quarter significantly increased the risks of a growing electricity deficit and the need for additional imports of electricity and gas for a successful heating season,” the report says.
The NBU expects that in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, the economy will operate under conditions of a larger electricity deficit – at the level of 4-6%.
In 2026, the electricity deficit estimate was increased to 3% on average for the year. This will have a negative impact on economic activity. According to NBU estimates, such an expansion of the electricity deficit will slow down GDP growth in 2025 by approximately 0.1 percentage points, and in 2026 – by 0.2 percentage points.
In the NBU’s July inflation report, “thanks to a better energy situation in the first half of the year, the electricity deficit, including imports, in 2025 was reduced to 1%.” Also, in the July report, the electricity deficit was estimated at about 1% in 2026.
Estimates of gas import needs have also been revised. Imports of 6 billion cubic meters of gas are expected in 2025, 5 billion cubic meters in 2026, and 3 billion cubic meters in 2027. This will increase costs by more than $3 billion in 2025 and another $3 billion in 2026-2027.
Zelenskyy instructed to ensure 100% financing of gas imports, 70% is already available28.10.25, 17:58 • 2731 view