“Moscow’s dependence on China grows despite trade decline – intelligenceIn 2025, trade between Russia and China decreased by 9.4% to $163.6 billion. This strengthens the Russian economy’s dependence on
Beijing due to energy and metal exports.
”, — write: unn.ua
DetailsUkrainian intelligence stated that over the nine months of 2025, trade volumes between Russia and China decreased to $163.6 billion, which is 9.4% less than in the same period of 2024.
In 2025, both China’s exports to Russia decreased by 11.3% (to $73.6 billion), and Russian supplies to China decreased by 7.7% (to $90 billion).
The main factor in the decline was the decrease in energy prices. The value of Russian energy exports to China in January-September decreased by 18.9%, or $14 billion. Oil exports fell by 8.1% in physical terms and by 21% in monetary terms due to the decrease in Brent prices.
Another factor was the oversupply of Chinese cars in the Russian market.
“After record deliveries in 2024, demand decreased by more than half – by 56%.
Additional pressure was caused by logistical disruptions. In the fall, queues of trucks formed at the Chinese-Kazakh border, and the cost of transportation from China to Russia increased: by rail – by 25% (to $5,000), by road – by 35% (to $15,000 for a 20-ton truck). Some shipping operators, including CStar Line (UAE) and STF Shipping (China), reduced voyages to Russian ports due to financial restrictions. The dependence of the Russian economy on the export of energy carriers and metals, most of which are sold to China, makes it increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in demand in the Chinese market and strengthens its dependence on Beijing,” the SZR added.
RecallThe Russian economy is plunging into recession, having exhausted internal resources to support the economy, with the most noticeable deterioration observed in manufacturing.