“The International Energy Agency predicts a significant excess of oil in the world market in 2026, which can reach 4 million barrels a day. The reason is low demand on the background of OPEC+ production growth and other manufacturers”, – WRITE: www.radiosvoboda.org
This happens against the backdrop of production growth, which is sold by members of the OPEC+ oil cartel and other manufacturers when demand remains weak.
The agency has changed its previous forecast for 2026 for excess raw materials at approximately 3.3 million barrels per day. Excess at 4 million barrels a day is almost 4% of world demand and is much greater than the forecasts of other analysts.
“Oil consumption will remain moderate during the rest of 2025 and in 2026, which will lead to an estimated annual growth at about 700,000 barrels a day for two years,” the IEA report reads.
Last Friday oil quotes fell sharply – against the background new exacerbation of the Trade War between the US and China. On October 14, the price of Brent reference variety, which has been partially recovered earlier at the beginning of the week, dropped again to the level of just more than 62 dollars per barrel. Against this background, the Russian variety of Urals is a little higher than $ 58 per barrel, which deprives the Russian budget of additional income.