International assistance to Ukraine: are all risks taken into account

International assistance to Ukraine is critical to support the economy and ensure stability during the war. However, there are many factors that influence its provision, and some of them are often forgotten. One of the key ones is the image of the country and its institutions in the international arena, which is formed by state institutions, UNN writes.

 90-day pause

One of Ukraine’s main partners is the United States of America. However, after the election of Donald Trump as the US president, certain challenges arose. After taking office, the US president introduced a 90-day pause on foreign aid to other countries, including Ukraine. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy notedthat US military aid has not been stopped, despite the 90-day restriction on humanitarian programs. 

However, it is hardly necessary to remind you how important international funding for humanitarian programs in Ukraine is, as it includes most of the areas that are important during the war, from rehabilitation of wounded soldiers to assistance in building energy-independent infrastructure.

Given the decision of the new US government, the US side will conduct a thorough audit of aid, paying attention to the effectiveness of its use and the reputation of the recipient country.

Today, the suspension of humanitarian aid to Ukraine and the audit, the provision of all types of aid that not only Ukraine but also many countries around the world have received – this action on the part of the US shows that the newly elected president wants to conduct an audit of the long-term aid that the US has provided to many countries. In other words, he is approaching US policy, support policy, from a businessman’s point of view. Any manager or businessman who comes to office, in principle, should start with an audit of what came before him… And so this is the logic of a businessman, a manager, and it is, in principle, normal for the business world. It’s just that now it looks a bit unexpected and a bit unusual for the political activity of the largest country in the world, the number one country,

At the same time, the expert does not rule out that the American partners may have a number of questions about the Ukrainian authorities’ fight against corruption violations if they are found during the audit.

It’s too late to correct the situation, as they say, if any corrupt actions have been taken, they will now be recorded. And I think that the consequences will include personnel claims, personnel requirements to Ukraine from the American side,

If the US auditors find problems with the use of funding for humanitarian issues, a larger-scale review of the targeted use of international aid will obviously begin. And this, in turn, could affect more important areas of funding and ensuring macroeconomic stability in Ukraine.

The NBU believes there will be no problems

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) believes that international support in 2025 will help avoid emission financing of the budget deficit. Thanks to stable revenues, the government was able to finance a significant deficit in 2024, and the NBU increased its international reserves to a record high of USD 43.8 billion.

It is expected that in 2025 Ukraine will receive 38.4 billion dollars. USD of external financing. Given the government’s measures to increase its own revenues and to raise funds on the domestic debt market, these funds should be enough to fully cover the planned budget deficit for next year without resorting to emission sources,

According to Pyshnyi, the NBU also expects to compensate for the shortage of foreign currency in the private sector and smooth out possible exchange rate fluctuations. This, he said, will ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market and support the economy.

However, the NBU’s forecasts ignore the impact of domestic political factors on international support and the country’s image. In particular, scandals surrounding high-ranking officials, such as the case against Oleksandr Zyma, director of the NBU’s legal department, may affect the trust of international partners in Ukraine.

International donors, including the United States and the European Union, are closely monitoring the situation inside the country. Corruption scandals, abuse of power by officials, and questionable personnel decisions are causing concern among partners. According to experts, this may affect the amount and conditions of funding that will come to Ukraine. Obviously, military assistance to Ukrainians will not be reduced, but humanitarian initiatives could be seriously affected.

“The country, companies, and people always need to take care of their image, because the attitude to a country, in this case, depends on its image, and this attitude determines the extent of cooperation with that country and the directions in which it cooperates or not.

Therefore, if, for example, a country is characterized as a deeply corrupt country, this is negative not only in terms of moral opinion, psychological opinion, but also in terms of the lack of serious investment in the country and the lack of large tourist flows to the country. That is, these are direct negative economic consequences when the image is negative,” said Andriy Novak.

It is also worth considering that international assistance is inextricably linked to the effectiveness of reforms. Economic transparency, the fight against corruption, and the proper use of funds are key conditions for continued support.

Resolving internal political conflicts, fighting corruption, unscrupulous officials, and good governance are key steps that will help maintain international support and ensure economic sustainability in 2025 and beyond.

The situation at the NBU could become an important marker for the international community. If scandals such as the criminal proceedings against the NBU’s chief lawyer go unaddressed, it could undermine confidence in the entire Ukrainian financial system.

The Case of Winter

Criminal proceedings were opened against Zyma over his letter to the Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF). In the document, Zyma, who is both the director of the NBU’s legal department and the chairman of the DGF’s Administrative Council, recommended on behalf of the National Bank that the Fund withdraw the lawsuits filed by Concord Bank against the NBU. These lawsuits concerned the cancellation of fines amounting to almost UAH 63.5 million and were filed before the decision to liquidate the bank.

The Deposit Guarantee Fund heeded this recommendation, which, according to Olena Sosedka, deprived the bank’s shareholders of their constitutional right to a fair trial.

In this way, Zyma may have called into question the independence of the Deposit Guarantee Fund’s management, which now has a negative impact on cooperation with international financial institutions. It is possible that, for example, the IMF, due to its dissatisfaction with the situation, has begun to actively demand that Ukraine develop a procedure and hold an open competition for the position of the DGF Managing Director. 

Currently, Zyma’s case has been transferred from the SBI to the Pechersk Police Department in Kyiv for investigation. Law enforcement officials told UNN that they plan to interrogate the NBU’s chief lawyer, and after serving him with a notice of suspicion, investigators are likely to petition the court to remove Zyma from his duties as director of the NBU’s legal department. Investigators also recognized Olena and Yulia Sosedok as victims in this criminal proceeding, confirming that Zyma’s actions caused harm.

Despite the seriousness of the case, NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi continues to ignore the problem, while Oleksandr Zyma continues to work in his position and receive millions in income.