“Inflation in Ukraine reached 13.4%: what will happen to prices by the end of the yearIn February 2025, annual inflation accelerated to 13.4%, while core inflation rose to 12%. The NBU forecasts a decrease in
inflation to a single-digit level by the end of the year.”, — write: unn.ua
In February 2025, inflation accelerated to 13.4% year-on-year. In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.8%
The dynamics of consumer inflation, as noted by the regulator, was close to the trajectory of the NBU’s forecast published in the Inflation Report for January 2025.
At the same time, core inflation rose to 12.0% year-on-year and was slightly higher than expected due to further increases in business costs, particularly for wages, the NBU noted.
In the coming months, inflation will rise due to the continued impact of last year’s poor harvests and increased production costs for enterprises related to energy supply and wages
However, the National Bank noted that “thanks to the NBU’s measures to strengthen monetary policy and the gradual exhaustion of the impact of temporary factors, inflation,” it is expected, should:
- “return to the trajectory of slowing down in the second half of the year”;
- “decrease to a single-digit level by the end of the year”;
- and continue towards the target of 5% on the policy horizon.
In January this year, inflation accelerated to 12.9% in annual terms – State Statistics Service11.02.25, 22:56 • 70756 views
Prices for raw food products increased by 13.0%In February, the growth of prices for raw food products accelerated year-on-year. Thus, fruits, some livestock products, flour, and cereals became more expensive faster due to the ongoing effects of last year’s low harvests. Prices for pork, chicken, and sugar approached the prices of trading partner countries amid stable exports. At the same time, the increase in vegetable prices slowed somewhat due to an expansion of supply through imports, the arrival of new greenhouse harvests, and a decrease in demand for certain items.
What about prices for other productsThe increase in prices for processed food products in February accelerated to 16.7% year-on-year. This dynamic is explained, as before, by the rising prices of food raw materials, as well as increased costs for enterprises related to electricity, wages, and logistics. As a result, bread and certain bakery products, oil, meat, and dairy products became significantly more expensive. Due to rising prices in global markets, certain imported goods, including cheeses, tea, coffee, and chocolate, also became more expensive.
Prices for non-food products slightly accelerated their growth to 4.4% year-on-year. At the same time, prices for clothing and footwear remained lower than last year.
The growth rate of service costs also slightly accelerated to 14.3% year-on-year. Compared to January, the cost of healthcare services, transportation services, communication, recreation, and culture increased. In contrast, personal care services, insurance, and financial services became more expensive at a slower rate.
Administratively regulated prices increased by 18.1%In February, the cost of excise goods rose faster due to further increases in production costs, as well as price adjustments in light of strengthened measures against shadow supply and the likely impact of the expected test implementation of E-excise. The pressure from production costs caused an increase in prices for pharmaceutical products, medical goods, and equipment. At the same time, the moratorium on increasing tariffs for certain housing and communal services for the population continued to restrain administrative inflation.
The growth rate of fuel prices was 13.9%In February, the growth of fuel prices accelerated compared to January, primarily due to high rates of increase in the cost of autogas. At the same time, the surplus supply of gasoline, competition in the gas station market, and optimization of logistics for imports restrained the increase in fuel prices.