India plans to increase oil production to reduce import dependence – intelligence

India plans to invest up to $100 billion in domestic exploration and increase oil refining capacity to reduce critical dependence on imported supplies. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, according to UNN.

Details

The Indian government has announced plans to invest up to $100 billion in domestic exploration and increase oil refining capacity to 6 million barrels per day by 2030. The initiative aims to strengthen the country’s energy security and reduce dependence on imports, which currently cover 85-88% of domestic oil consumption.

It is noted that India’s energy balance remains structurally unbalanced: with production of about 0.55-0.6 million barrels per day (bpd), domestic demand exceeds 5 million bpd, meaning that less than 12% of needs are met by its own resources. Under these conditions, the country’s oil industry is focused on a large refining hub model – state and private refineries earn money by processing relatively cheap imported oil with subsequent re-export of petroleum products.

After 2023, India actively purchased Russian oil at a discount, which ensured record refining profitability and supported high GDP growth rates – about 7%. The strategy of increasing the domestic resource base involves opening about 1 million km² of territories for exploration, previously restricted for commercial research, including certain marine areas and border regions.

It is also planned to develop the deep-water shelf, primarily in the Krishna-Godavari basin and near the Andaman Islands, which requires drilling at depths of more than 1,000-1,500 m and is associated with high technological risks. A separate direction is the development of shale and tight deposits in partially explored basins, particularly in the state of Rajasthan.

Western experts note that even if these programs are successful, domestic production will not be able to significantly replace imports and will rather serve as a limited “safety cushion.” The higher cost of Indian oil, the long cycle of field development (7-12 years), and the rapid growth of demand mean that in the next 5-7 years, the country will remain critically dependent on imported supplies.

RecallUS President Donald Trump signed an executive order to cancel punitive tariffs of 25% on all imports from India, which were imposed due to the purchase of Russian oil.