IMF raises global forecast due to AI boom and changing customs policy

The IMF has raised its global growth forecast for 2026 due to active investments in artificial intelligence and the easing of US customs policy. Experts note that markets have successfully adapted to previous challenges and are demonstrating productivity growth. This is reported by  Reuters, writes UNN.

Details”We believe that global growth remains quite resilient,” said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. He added that current forecasts exceed expectations made before Donald Trump’s re-election in October 2024.

According to him, the global economy is successfully “shaking off” the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025. Businesses have adapted to higher American tariffs by reorienting supply chains. Trade agreements have lowered some tariffs, and China has redirected exports to markets outside the US.

The American economy will grow by 2.4% in 2026 – 0.3 percentage points more than previously predicted. This is partly due to large-scale investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure: data centers, powerful chips, and energy systems.

The AI boom is stimulating activity not only in the US. Spain received a 0.3 percentage point increase in its 2026 forecast to 2.3%. The UK maintained its estimate at 1.3%, also thanks to technological investments.

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Gourinchas warned that the frantic pace of the AI boom creates risks of increased inflation. At the same time, if expectations for productivity and profit growth are not met, this could lead to a correction in high market valuations and limit demand.

The IMF identified artificial intelligence among the risks with negative potential. Other threats include supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and new escalations of trade conflicts.

China will show growth of 4.5% in 2026 – lower than 5.0% in 2025, but 0.3 percentage points higher than October estimates. The increase reflects a 10 percentage point reduction in US tariffs on Chinese goods during the year and the redirection of exports to Southeast Asia and Europe.

The Eurozone will grow by 1.3% in 2026 – 0.1 percentage points more than the October forecast. This is due to increased government spending in Germany and better performance in Spain and Ireland.

According to IMF forecasts, global inflation will continue to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

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