“IEA: global oil supply to exceed demand this year despite Middle East conflictOil production is expected to rise to 104.9 million barrels per day, exceeding demand of 103.8 million. Weak consumption in China
and the US will curb global demand.”, — write: unn.ua
DetailsGlobal oil production is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to 104.9 million barrels per day, exceeding projected demand of 103.8 million barrels per day and leading to an increase in oil inventories during the year, the IEA said.
“In the absence of serious disruptions, oil markets in 2025 look well supplied,” the IEA said.
The increase in supply is expected to be provided by both the OPEC+ cartel, which is in the process of reversing a series of production cuts, and non-OPEC+ producers, which will add an average of 1.4 million barrels per day over the year, the agency said.
At the same time, weak consumption in China and the United States will curb global demand, which is forecast to grow by 720,000 barrels per day this year, less than the forecast increase of 740,000 barrels per day.
With supply exceeding demand, the volume of oil in storage worldwide has increased by an average of 1 million barrels per day since February and by a “huge” 93 million barrels in May alone, the IEA added. However, total inventories remain 90 million barrels below a year ago.
The IEA warned that the conflict between Israel and Iran poses significant “geopolitical risks to the security of oil supplies,” but added that “at the time of writing, there has been no impact on Iranian oil supplies.”
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Iran partially suspended production at the world’s largest South Pars natural gas field following an Israeli airstrike this week, but it is not yet clear whether this has affected production, the agency said.
Oil storage facilities and the Shahrn refinery near Tehran were also attacked, but no damage was reported, it added.
In a separate report on prospects to 2030, the IEA forecasts that oil supply will continue to outstrip demand over the next five years. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030, reaching a “plateau” of 105.5 million by the end of the decade.
Supply will grow much faster, the report said, with global production capacity increasing by more than 5 million barrels per day to 114.7 million barrels per day.
The slowdown in oil demand growth will be largely driven by China, where the IEA now expects consumption to peak in 2027 following a surge in electric vehicle sales and the further deployment of high-speed rail and gas-powered trucks.
The forecast is in line with forecasts from China’s largest oil companies, but is the first time the IEA has given a specific date for peak demand in China.
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