“Hryvnia to Dollar Exchange Rate: Banker’s Forecast for the End of June and the End of the YearBy the end of June, the hryvnia will fluctuate within the range of 41.2-41.5 UAH per dollar, and by the end of the year it will
not devalue to 45 UAH, according to Andriy Dubas, President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.”, — write: unn.ua
What can we say about 2025. It is difficult to predict for the whole year. I think that by the end of June, the hryvnia against the US dollar will fluctuate in the range of 41.2-41.5 in this range. After June, there may be its traditional reversal in the other direction, as it has been going on for the last 10 years
Details
He stressed that today the main participant in the entire foreign exchange market remains the National Bank of Ukraine, as it provides this demand, which is abundant in Ukraine today.
“Today’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, which amount to, if I’m not mistaken, about 44 billion dollars. Every quarter, when they report on the volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves, they show records, and this volume can be said with confidence that the National Bank has the ability to control and prevent any collapses or abrupt steps,” Dubas said.
He also believes that by the end of the year the hryvnia will not devalue to UAH 45 per dollar.
I think that the Ministry of Finance is a little too pessimistic about the formation of the exchange rate, especially this year. I think that by the end of the year the hryvnia may devalue, but I am convinced that it will not devalue to UAH 45 per dollar
The expert noted that the exchange rate is formed by supply and demand.
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“That is, if there is a greater desire of people and businesses to buy валюту, then, of course, this particular валюту will increase in price relative to our national валюту. If, on the contrary, businesses and the population sell more of their валюту, then, of course, the price decreases. A very interesting fact has happened now. We have a seasonal factor in our country, when from summer to the end of the year the Ukrainian hryvnia devalues, and in simple language the dollar becomes more expensive, then after the new year in January it starts to decrease its price, and this lasts literally until June,” Dubas said.
The President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks noted that this seasonal factor occurs due to a number of factors, he named a few.
“In the Ukrainian economy, the agricultural sector occupies a large part, and when farmers prepare for sowing, they can buy more fuel and lubricants, some kind of seed material, and this is imported goods, and therefore they enter the market and buy more валюту. Demand raises the price. Whereas at the end of the year, in December, the state budget, on the contrary, settles on its various contracts. Enterprises and various organizations may have allowances, 13th salary, various bonuses, and then more hryvnia appears on the market, and this hryvnia can flow into the валюту market, and thus it raises it,” Dubas said.
The expert noted that, on the other hand, after sowing, when farmers have harvested, and there is an obligation that, having received выручка, they must today, due to валюту restrictions, bring it to Ukraine and convert it into hryvnia, there is a moment when more валюту is sold, and thus it reduces its value.
Addition
The National Bank of Ukraine has today set the official hryvnia exchange rate at UAH 41.5730/USD, which devalued the hryvnia by 1 kopeck.