“How did the production and export volumes change during 2024 and what to wait further?”, – WRITE: epravda.com.ua
In 2024, the metallurgical industry was restored: compared to the previous year, key performance increased. Despite constant shelling and destruction, transport and logistics difficulties and shortage of qualified specialists, Ukrainian metallurgists managed to increase production and export. Production. In 2024, metallurgical enterprises produced about 6 million tons of cast iron and 7.6 million tonnes of steel, which exceeded 2023 by 18.3% and 22.6%, respectively. A positive indicator is also an increase in the manufacture of steel rolled up 17% to 6.2 million tons. The growth of production was influenced by a number of factors: the restoration of maritime exports, the increase in demand for Ukrainian rental in the world, the stabilization of the economy. However, at the end of the year, growth slowed down due to problems with energy supply, increasing electricity tariffs and logistics difficulties. 8.5-10% to 380-400 thousand tons increased the production of foundry products. First of all – due to the growth of production of foundry products for the needs of the Armed Forces. Advertising: production indicators of the metallurgical industry, million tonnes202120222222232024 -churvun21,16,46,07,1.1.36 Metallurgy is largely focused on exports and is critically dependent on the conditions of the world markets. In previous years, the proportion of exported steel products reached 80%. In 2024, the share of exports fell to 67% despite the restoration of the ability to supply products through seaports. Advertising: traditionally in export supplies were prevailed by steel semi -fin . In 2024, the total proportion of the raw material component in Ukrainian export of metal products was almost 61%, and the share of ready rental – 39%. In total, in 2024, about 5.84 million tons of ferrous metals were exported from Ukraine, which is 22.6% more than last year. Exports of semi -finished products increased by 56.7%, steel rental by 28.4%. Export sales of metallurgical raw materials decreased by 6.3%. The foreign exchange earnings from ferrous metals amounted to $ 3.09 billion. (growth by 16.9%). Also significantly increased exports of iron ore raw materials: from 17.7 million tons to 33.7 million tons. The main raw materials were shipped to China, Slovakia and Turkey. Exports of ferrous scrap during 2024 increased by 60.7% to about 293.2 thousand tons. The geography of ferrous metals exports in 2024 has expanded: 60.8% of metal products made in Ukraine were shipped to EU countries, 16.2% to NAFTA. Rating of importers of Ukrainian metal products: Poland (22.6%), Bulgaria (17.4%), USA (16.2%), Italy (7%), Egypt (6.2%). Exports of ferrous metals from Ukraine, thousand tonnes2021202220232024 metallurgical raw materials4 529.31 737 1 948, 1708,2473,65557,21,2557,9172,172,1104,6103,5,5UN19 634,76 106,34 764,75 841,3 tribes 6 Source: State Customs Import service. The import of steel rental in Ukraine in 2024 increased and reached a historical maximum: 1.26 million tons, which is 14.2% more than in 2023. The amount of the purchase of imported goods increased by 13.1% to more than $ 1.5 billion. Most of all in foreign markets bought ready -made steel rolled. Its share in the commodity structure of the import of ferrous metals was 93%. The main goods are flat rolled (72%), long rolling (12%), rolled steel (9%). Imports of ferrous metals to Ukraine, thousand tonnes20212022320232024 metallurgical raw materials86,123,216,683,6,69,05,60,10 Rent from alloy steels167,579,291,8118,0UN1 234 , 4636,31 102,11 258,3 Truba steel150,260,1105,110,110,6rud manganese425,3135,84444,586,3 Source: State Customs Service in 2024 increased demand for all types of steel rental. Repair work, reconstruction or construction due to mass destruction of infrastructure facilities, residential and non -residential structures led to a rental need. The lack of production and growth of demand in the domestic market for some types of ferrous metals produced in Ukraine before the war was offset by import deliveries. Currently, there is a shortage of flat rental of medium and inhibited thicknesses, galvanized flat rolled metal, large -sized construction rail, rails, rails. Read also: The heart of Ukrainian metallurgy. What are the consequences for the economy Pokrovskaya? A great history of metallurgy. As Ukraine lost the largest industry of the economy, the main volume of steel rolled, almost 51%, were imported from Turkey. Evaluating the current low cost of logistics and the openness of trade corridors, Turkey is the closest and most convenient trade partner for Ukraine. From there direct deliveries are made. This country has a strong production potential and can meet a significant share of the needs of Ukrainian buyers. The rating of European vendors of high quality metal products looks like this: Poland (10%), Slovakia (7%), Italy (3%). The share of China has decreased to 9%. Compared to 2023, ferrous metals consumption in Ukraine slowed down. According to the accepted method of calculating the balance of the market of ferrous metals in 2024 amounted to more than 3.2 million tons. About two -thirds of the domestic market in ferrous metals were covered by Ukrainian manufacturers. Forecasts and expectations. The prospects for the full restoration and further development of the metallurgical industry of Ukraine are unlikely. The preservation of production volumes at 2024 can be considered a positive development of the situation for the industry, but in the conditions of safety risks and new challenges through the war, these indicators can be revised. Expected steel production in 2025 will not exceed 6.5-6.8 million tons. The volume of export deliveries of Ukrainian ferrous metals will depend mainly on the production potential in Ukraine and the economic situation in the European market, where the largest volumes of metal rental from Ukraine are supplied. The share of cast iron, ferroalloys and scrap will increase, so the issues of safety and sustainability of transport corridors remain acute. Provided the production volumes at the specified level, exports of ferrous metals in 2025 will be 4-4.5 million tons, and foreign exchange revenues will be slightly reduced. The projected reduction in the production of steel rental in Ukraine against the background of active restoration of buildings and infrastructure will be compensated by imports, which will continue to grow. It is expected that in 2025, 1.5-1.7 million tons of steel rental will be introduced into Ukraine, which will exceed the historical maximum of 2024.