“Gold at $3,800: why the market outpaced forecasts and what it means for the global economyThe price of gold reached $3,800 per ounce, which was previously forecast for the end of 2025. This increase reflects global
distrust and preparation for worse economic scenarios.
”, — write: unn.ua
Reality has surpassed the expectations of leading financial institutions. In their latest estimates, Goldman Sachs Research assumed that gold would remain in the range of $3,700 – $3,900 per ounce by the end of 2025, and in a recessionary scenario, it could rise to $3,880. J.P. Morgan considered prices at $3,675 – $4,000.
When $3,800 became the real value of gold already at the end of September, and not at the end of 2025, analysts’ attention shifted to the next mark – $4,000 per ounce. The market expects to see this value in 2026. But it is possible that gold will surpass expectations this time as well.
Such a rapid increase in the price of gold is only the tip of the iceberg. The reasons are much more important, says fintech expert Olena Sosiedka in an exclusive comment for UNN.
$3,800 per ounce of gold is not just a record. It is a mirror of our world, which lives in a state of uncertainty and a crisis of trust. And when modern financial instruments look fragile, investors once again turn to the oldest symbol of stability – gold.
The risk of a US government “shutdown,” internal political squabbles in Washington, and expectations of Fed rate cuts have forced capital to flee from stocks to a “safe haven.”
Geopolitical tensions only reinforce this movement. Wars, trade conflicts, unpredictable decisions of world leaders – all this creates an atmosphere of constant instability, in which gold becomes a universal insurance. So, the jump in the value of gold is not just a financial event, it is a marker of investors’ trust in the modern economy. And for the fintech market, this is a clear signal: technologies can make finance more convenient, but the basis of trust is always built on simple and understandable values.
In addition, the rising value of gold means that investors are preparing for a weakening dollar. This is primarily due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The logic is simple – if the Fed begins to ease its policy, the yield on dollar bonds will fall, and gold will become more attractive. After all, it does not depreciate along with the currency.
Accordingly, a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, creating a powerful incentive for its price to rise. The key structural demand for the precious metal is formed by central banks, primarily China and Russia. They are aggressively buying up ingots, openly demonstrating a strategy of abandoning the dollar and an unwillingness to rely solely on the American currency amid growing geopolitical tensions.
Even significant geological discoveries, such as the Wangu gold deposit in China, cannot curb the price rally. After all, it takes years, if not decades, from the discovery of a deposit to finished ingots. This indicates that the market is driven not by production factors, but by fear and the strategic desire of investors and states to have a physical asset.
So, we can conclude: when states and investors massively turn to the oldest, “eternal” asset, it means that trust in the modern world architecture is at a critically low level. And $3,800 per ounce is not just a financial event, it is a diagnosis of the global economy. Record prices for the “yellow metal” are a direct indicator of the times: the world is not just experiencing instability, it is actively preparing for worse scenarios. Investors use gold as universal protection, as its rising value directly indicates distrust of currencies, political guarantees, and market reliability. Thus, gold today is not just a commodity, but the main barometer of humanity’s global distrust and geopolitical risk.