“Ukraine can receive 6.6 billion cubic meters from the Polish border. m of gas per year and transit it to Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova and Romania.”, — write: epravda.com.ua
President Trump became the 47th president of the United States. This is his second term, so Ukraine already has experience of communicating with him and his administration. The experience was not always positive: Trump was even impeached due to accusations of pressuring Zelenskyi to obtain compromising information on the Biden family in order to improve his own chances of winning the 2020 elections. There were also many positive moments. For example, it was the Trump administration that imposed sanctions on Nord Stream 2 despite fierce German opposition, and it was Trump who provided the first significant military aid even before the start of the war, which allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fiercely resist Russian forces at the beginning of the invasion. Now you need to reboot the relationship and look for new points of contact. Of course, the issue of ending the war will come first, but we must not forget that Trump is a businessman and a representative of US big business. Therefore, opportunities for strengthening economic cooperation should also be sought. Cooperation in the energy sector has significant potential. After the end of the war, there is a potential for cooperation in the fields of nuclear power, gas production on the Black Sea shelf and shale gas, restoration of heat generation. However, it is possible to strengthen cooperation with American partners even now.Advertisement: The USA is confidently picking up the pace of LNG production and will actively look for sales markets. At the end of 2024, the operation of Plaquemines LNG (almost 20 million tons of LNG per year) and Corpus Christi Stage 3 (10 million tons of LNG per year) began. The following American LNG terminals are scheduled to start operating in the coming years: Calcasieu Pass 2 LNG (20 million tons per year), Golden Pass LNG (18 million tons per year), Rio Grande LNG (17.5 million tons per year), Port Arthur LNG (13.5 million tons per year). Ukraine significantly strengthened the position of American LNG in Europe. From January 1, it banned the transit of Russian gas, which created an additional demand for LNG in the amount of 15 billion cubic meters. m, which can be used by American producers.Advertisement: Together with Poland and the Baltic countries, where LNG receiving terminals are located, Ukraine can offer an interesting route for the supply of American LNG to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which historically have been almost completely dependent on Russian pipeline gas. Ukraine can already receive 6.6 billion cubic meters from the Polish border. m of gas per year and transit it to Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, Romania and even to Southern Europe through the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline. Powerful Ukrainian gas storages will give this route additional flexibility. In order to implement this project, the “Northern LNG Corridor”, it is necessary to make additional minor investments in the development of infrastructure on the territory of Poland. Poland and Ukraine, with the support of the USA, can do it quite quickly. In addition, Ukraine itself should start importing American LNG. Unfortunately, own gas production is still not enough. In 2024, production increased by only 2.2% to 19.12 billion cubic meters. m and has not yet reached the level of 2021 (19.8 billion cubic meters). Consumption is gradually recovering. In 2024, it increased to 21.5 billion cubic meters. m and will grow further during the economic recovery of the country. In 2021, it amounted to 28.8 billion cubic meters. m. That is, the gas balance shows the need to import at least 2 billion cubic meters in 2025. m of gas and why not from the USA? Due to the ill-conceived policy of the Ministry of Energy and “Naftogaz” in Ukraine, insufficient gas reserves were created in PSG for the winter. According to my calculations, PSG now has 4.15 billion cubic meters left. m of active gas, which can be lifted from storages. Calculation: 8.9 billion cubic meters. m – 3.93 billion cubic meters. m of “long-term storage gas” (a clever name for buffer gas, which cannot be removed without violating the regulations for the operation of the PSG) – 0.582 billion cubic meters. m of “long-term storage active gas that was transferred to buffer gas” (another clever name for buffer gas) – 0.228 billion cubic meters. m of gas in uncontrolled underground gas storages. Read also: “Cold, cold, wolf’s tail.” Don’t freeze. How Putin will lose the gas war Even if they plan to turn off the heating on April 1, 2025, in warm weather, the withdrawal may amount to 4.26 billion cubic meters. m – 71 days for 60 million cubic meters. m per day. This already exceeds the available gas reserves in PSG – 4.15 billion cubic meters. m against 4.26 billion cubic meters. m. This does not take into account the scenario of the presence of a period of severe frosts, when the gas withdrawal from PSG may increase from 60 million cubic meters. m per day up to 100 million cubic meters. m. That is, if the resource in PSG is enough for this winter, then Ukraine will come out of the heating season with empty gas storages. To prepare for next winter, 8 billion cubic meters will have to be pumped into PSG. m of gas, which cannot be done only thanks to own production. It will be necessary to import 2.8-3.3 billion cubic meters. m of gas. Ukraine will not get through the next winter without imports from the spring of 2025. Ukraine should look for new opportunities to strengthen cooperation with the USA. Unrealistic presentations from Lugano are unlikely to impress pragmatic American politicians, and the import of LNG as early as 2025 is not only a necessity for Ukraine, but also an opportunity to start real mutually beneficial cooperation with the USA. I advise the leaders of the Ministry of Energy and Naftogaz to urgently go to Washington and start negotiations on the purchase of 2-3 billion cubic meters. m of liquefied gas from the spring of 2025. There is not much time left.