“Euro is getting more expensive faster than dollar: why hryvnia is losing ground – explanation of financial expert Olena SosiedkaThe euro is getting more expensive faster than the dollar: why the hryvnia is losing ground – explanation of financial expert
Olena Sosiedka.”, — write: unn.ua
DetailsAccording to Olena Sosiedka, the hryvnia continues to be under moderate but constant devaluation pressure, although the situation remains controlled. The main factors are the gradual curtailment of валютних обмежень, import pressure, activity of speculators, and external financial support, which keeps the exchange rate within stability.
Financial market analytics show that the dollar is currently at the level of about 41.5 UAH, but in the coming months a gradual increase of 6-7% is expected. According to forecasts Dragon Capital, by the end of 2025 the exchange rate may be 44 UAH/$. In the first quarter, the national currency even slightly strengthened – ≈41.5 UAH/$, but the regulator is already forming a “flexibility corridor” to prevent sudden jumps.
By the end of the year, the dollar exchange rate is likely to rise to 43-44 hryvnias. This is a projected and non-critical weakening of the hryvnia, which occurs in a relatively stable wartime economy
At the same time, the euro shows somewhat higher volatility. As of June 16, the euro at the exchange rate of the National Bank of Ukraine costs 47.6, on the cash market it is traded within 47.3-48.3 UAH, and this dynamics, according to the financial expert, has several key explanations.
“The euro is becoming more expensive faster than the dollar, primarily due to high demand from importers – this includes fuel, seasonal products, and goods from the EU. But we also have a significant impact of speculative activity. The euro is often used in “short” arbitrage strategies against the background of fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate against the euro in world markets,” – explained Sosiedka.
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In particular, in June the EUR/USD exchange rate reached the level of 1.12-1.13, which pushes fluctuations in Ukrainian exchange offices as well. In addition, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine is also affected by the smaller volume of NBU’s foreign exchange interventions in this particular currency, in contrast to the dollar. As a result – a wider spread between buying and selling rates (up to 1 hryvnia) and higher unpredictability for consumers.
By December, the euro may well approach the mark of 49-50 UAH. And here the main recommendation is to carefully monitor the market and avoid panic decisions. If you work with this currency, it is important to choose proven channels – banking platforms with a minimum spread
Among the main reasons for the rise in the euro, she also highlights the global instability of the валютний ринок, an increase in import demand in preparation for the heating season, as well as attempts by individual players to take advantage of the difference in exchange rates in the cash and interbank markets.
“Unlike the dollar, the euro is less protected from local speculation. Often it is this currency that is “played” on when there is even minimal demand. This creates the impression of artificial growth, but from the point of view of the market – this is a classic effect of limited supply,” – said Sosiedka.
In general, according to Olena Sosiedka, the national currency should remain relatively stable, although under pressure. The global валютний ринок is significantly influenced by the policies of the United States, in particular Donald Trump. His decisions and statements are often unpredictable and do not lend themselves to classical analysis. Currently, the gap between the dollar and the euro has already become quite noticeable – in fact, a record in recent years. This trend will either continue or even intensify.
Let us remind youIn the first quarter of 2025, Ukrainians оформ и л и more than 2.17 million microloans for a total amount of 12.72 billion UAH, which is 8% more compared to the same period last year. The total debt to microfinance organizations reached 24.28 billion UAH. The average amount of one loan decreased to 5,858 UAH.
Earlier, the National Bank of Ukraine noted positive trends in the banking sector, in particular, an increase in lending to business and the population. At the same time, experts emphasize that the expansion of the “fast” loan segment indicates a deepening of the problem of solvency and limited access of Ukrainians to classical bank financing.