“Drone strikes will hinder Russian oil refineries until mid-2026 – IEAThe International Energy Agency predicts that drone strikes will hinder the pace of oil refining at Russian refineries until at least mid-2026. This has already reduced the country’s oil refining by approximately 500,000 barrels per day.
”, — write: unn.ua
DetailsAttacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, including oil refineries, pipelines, and offshore terminals, are intensifying, aiming to reduce the Kremlin’s energy revenues and limit its ability to supply fuel to the front lines.
Since early August, at least 28 strikes have reportedly been carried out on key Russian refineries, with the range of attacks increasing, leading to gasoline shortages in several regions, as well as occupied Crimea. This forced the Kremlin to impose restrictions on fuel exports until the end of the year.
“We previously assumed a normalization of refining activity by the end of the year, but we are now taking a more cautious approach,” the agency’s report, published on Tuesday, said.
The IEA currently forecasts that Russia’s oil refining volume will be slightly less than 5 million barrels per day until June 2026, and then recover to 5.4 million barrels per day. The forecast will be revised as additional information becomes available.
“Ukraine’s increasingly large and significant drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and infrastructure” has now reduced the country’s oil refining by approximately 500,000 barrels per day, the agency reports.
The government in Moscow has classified most energy data, including data on refinery operations and motor fuel production, making it difficult to accurately assess the damage caused by drones. Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the country’s refineries had increased refining volumes to balance domestic fuel supply and demand.
According to the IEA, with drone strikes affecting refinery operations, Russia increased oil exports in September to 5.1 million barrels per day, the highest figure since May 2023. However, according to the agency’s estimates, the country’s oil export revenues fell to a three-month low of $13.4 billion.
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This decline occurred as Russia’s oil supply revenues, which increased by $200 million month-on-month, were more than offset by a $440 million drop in oil product exports, the report said. According to IEA calculations, Russian fuel supplies to other countries in September reached 2.4 million barrels per day, the lowest figure in a decade, with the exception of April 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The reduction in oil export revenues, as indicated, is likely to put a strain on Russia’s state treasury, as Moscow continues to spend heavily on financing the fourth year of the war in Ukraine. The government already expects oil and gas revenues to the budget this year to be the lowest since the pandemic.
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