What will happen to the dollar in Ukraine: forecast for a week from the banker

The banker predicted what to expect from the currency market at the end of January / photo ua.depositphotos.comJanuary, as expected, brought dynamics to the foreign exchange market: demand for currency was much higher than supply, and exchange rate “records” became an expected regularity, which corresponds to economic realities. The head of the treasury department of “Globus Bank” Taras Lesovyi told about this in a comment to UNIAN.

According to him, the National Bank took quite effective measures aimed at achieving a balance between supply and demand, convincing market players that uncontrolled rapid and chaotic exchange rate changes should not be expected in the near future. In difficult economic conditions, the regulator did not depart from a fairly effective and timely strategy of currency interventions that satisfied demand as much as possible.

He also noted that the January increase in the discount rate became another important mechanism for strengthening the hryvnia and lowering the “temperature” on the foreign exchange market.

“In the last days of January and at the very beginning of February, some tension may remain on the market, but it seems that the peak of excitement has already passed. We expect that by the end of January, the official dollar rate will fluctuate between: 42-42.3 hryvnias/dollar But at the end of the first month, the dollar exchange rate may be at 42.02 hryvnias/dollars 2024, such fluctuations are quite common and not sensational. Let me remind you that in 2024, the maximum increase in the dollar exchange rate was 2.5% in May, – said the expert.

According to Lesovoy’s forecast, the main indicators of the currency market from January 27 to February 2 will be as follows:

• Corridors of currency changes: 42-42.3 hryvnias/dollar. and 43.5-45 UAH/euro (interbank) and 42.3-42.85 UAH/dollar. and UAH 45-47.5/euro (on the cash market);
• daily exchange rate changes: at interbank — up to 0.05-0.15 UAH, in banks — up to 0.1-0.2 UAH, at exchange offices — up to 0.3 UAH;
• the average difference between interbank and cash market exchange rates: depending on the currency, up to UAH 0.3-0.5;
• weekly rate deviations are expected within 1-1.5% of the initial Monday rate.

“Thus, at the intersection of January and February, the general situation on the foreign exchange market is unlikely to change: the dollar exchange rate will not be threatened by a rapid rise, and the regulator’s strategy will remain quite effective: exchange rate changes will be frequent, but rather slow. A “system” of daily currency changes has been formed within the framework of the “managed flexibility” regime, it will not change,” Lesovy summarized.

He also noted that the exchange rate situation in February can be quite volatile and have many surprises. However, the banker is convinced that the corridor of changes will be within 42-42.4 hryvnias/dollar.

“At the moment, there are reasons to believe that the month will be active, but not as “stressful” as the beginning of January. The market expects that the period of “exchange rate plateaus” may come in the spring, when the official exchange rate, despite minor situational changes, will remain more or less stable “, Lesovy added.

Exchange rates in Ukraine – the latest newsIn exchange offices of Ukraine, the average value of the dollar fell to UAH 42.23/dollar this morning, and the dollar can be sold for UAH 42.15. The exchange rate of the euro in cash today is 44.23 hryvnias/euro, the selling rate is 44.01 hryvnias/euro.

The dollar exchange rate at “PrivatBank” on January 24 decreased by 10 kopecks and is UAH 42.30 per dollar. The exchange rate of the euro in the bank today also fell by 10 kopecks and is UAH 44.25 per euro.

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