What if Bitcoin (BTC) is already in a bear market?

Bitcoin price has been losing momentum since October. BTC peaked above $125,000, but has since fallen below the psychological threshold of $100,000. Could Bitcoin already enter a bear market similar to those seen in 2018 or 2022? This article explores the reasons why the king of cryptocurrencies may be heading back into a bear market. Let’s start!

Do previous cycles provide clues that should not be missed? Since its inception, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between during bull and bear market periods/strong> . Currently, the king of cryptocurrencies is on bull market from the end of 2022 having grown over 700% in just a few years. However, if Bitcoin continues to behave as it has during the previous two cycles, it could be at the very beginning a new bear market .

Bitcoin price may enter a bear market if it follows previous cycles. Source: DecenTrader

The most recent all-time high was reached through 537 days after halving . Previous market highs in 2017 and 2021 have been reached 528 and 548 days after halving in accordance. If the cryptocurrency continues to move through the halving, it may appear in the coming months prolonged bear market .

Despite the favorable context, Bitcoin is not using it to explode Investors clearly panicked when it flared up again trade tensions between the US and China. In the end, it was more fear than harm as the two superpowers succeeded reach an agreement . But Bitcoin was unable to use this good news to make a comeback all-time high of $126,000 .

For his part, The Fed is easing its monetary policy . Recently she lowered interest rates by 25 basis points . While this is great news for risk assets, Powell tempered enthusiasm, explaining that there is no certainty about the next meeting. In fact, the chairman of the Fed decided leave investors in limbo and the cryptocurrency market did not take kindly to it. In addition, announcements about ending the government shutdown is another positive development from the United States. The end of fiscal paralysis could have had a positive effect on cryptocurrencies, but the reaction was relatively lackluster.

Thus, Bitcoin operates in a favorable environment. Trade tensions have eased, the Fed has cut rates, and the government shutdown has ended. Even though there are no real obstacles standing in the way of Bitcoin, its price remains volatile. If no positive factor is able to revive Bitcoin, it may indicate that it is already in a bear market. Or Bitcoin could use this time to pause after several years of growth. In any case, some experts remain optimistic about 2026.

Source: journalducoin.com