““`html The energy system is going through the most critical stage since Ukraine gained independence: the safety margin is falling, and the speed of decision-making is not keeping up with the scale of the problems. Despite the military circumstances, Ukraine must build a new, more stable energy system – and do it quickly. What is holding this process back? Olga Rybachuk, managing director of Elementum Energy, the largest […]”, — write: businessua.com.ua
The energy system is going through the most critical phase since Ukraine gained independence: the level of safety margin is falling, and the promptness of decision-making is not keeps up with the scale of the problems. Despite the military circumstances, Ukraine must build a new, more stable energy industry – and do it quickly. What is holding back this process? Olga Rybachuk, managing director of Elementum Energy, the largest producer of renewable energy in Ukraine, shares her view, according to Forbes Ukraine’s rating of “20 largest players in alternative energy”
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Despite many years of statements about a course for decentralized and distributed generation, Ukrainian energy remains highly centralized. The share of the new generation is almost imperceptible, and real steps towards decentralization are slow and infrequent.
The formal approach, inertia, insufficient attention of the executive power to ecological transformation, giving preference to traditional generation and state enterprises over private projects and investment needs are the main obstacles on the way to restoring the energy system.
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This can be seen from the statistics: of the 2 GW of installed wind capacity, about 0.5 GW were in operation before the full-scale invasion began in 2024. In order to reach the state’s stated share of wind energy, Ukraine needs to build or restore 5.7 GW in less than five years. At the same time, we commissioned 20 MW in 2024, 324 MW in 2025 (according to UVEA data) – a pace that makes even such small goals impossible.
At the same time, the private sector is actively developing new RES projects and has already created a significant portfolio: for example, Elementum Energy currently has about 300 MW of wind farms in the final stages of development, and another 59 MW project has already entered the construction phase. However, the majority of wind projects (and, according to various estimates, about 4 GW of them) have not yet moved to the construction stage due to a number of obstacles and problems in the industry.
The second set of problems is the administrative redundancy of regulation and the instrumental limitations of the energy market. Current model withRestrictions on electricity prices
” data-title>price restrictions hinders integration with the EU, complicates the creation of new generation capacities and reduces the attractiveness of the sector for investors.
The most liquid segment – the day-ahead market – accounts for no more than 25% of all contracts, and most bilateral agreements (the main market segment) are concluded for a month or even less. Therefore, a key condition for the implementation of projects whose payback period is 8-10 years is missing, namely, at least some level of predictability of prices and, accordingly, cash flow from investments. Without it, large investments, strategic partnerships and significant lending are impossible.
The third problem is manual management and low institutional capacity (inertia). There is a lack of a clear definition of responsibility for the development of the industry, for specific areas and for results.
What should the ministry change – and how to establish the right vector The primary task of the Ministry of Energy should be the transformation of the energy system of Ukraine. It is necessary to develop specific annual tasks, which should be assigned to the Ministry of Energy and its individual divisions and serve as a basis for evaluating the effectiveness of work and personnel decisions.
Such goals can be: the volume of construction of new generating capacities, the volume of replacement of outdated capacities, the volume of construction of technological distribution systems (microgrids, hybrid models, localized storage and balancing systems).
The second principle is transparency. Even for professional market participants, it is now difficult to understand who is responsible for what and what is really happening. The Ministry of Energy should systematically report on its activities, actively interact with market participants, conduct an open dialogue so that businesses can plan and make investment decisions based on clear signals.
The third direction is to launch a quick recovery. The Ministry should become the initiator of rapid recovery, work on the issue of protecting ports for the import of energy equipment, focus on the critical shortage of personnel in the energy industry, cooperate with global manufacturers of wind turbines and gas turbines for priority deliveries to Ukraine, interact with investors to increase the number of implemented projects – none of the above is even documented.
There are separate initiatives, for example, the Energy Support Fund of Ukraine, which is really doing its job, but its capabilities are clearly not enough to meet the needs for restoration of the specified scale.
The energy system of Ukraine has a significant potential for development, and this potential is revealed every day:
- in the willingness of investors to conduct activities in the country,
- in the technologies available today,
- in the experience of specialists who have implemented complex projects in various conditions and are ready to share it,
- in the skills and dedication of our energy workers who heroically restore the system after every Russian attack.
Political will and managerial wisdom are needed to combine these possibilities into a single effective model. A lot depends on what the leadership in the energy sector will be like today – both how we will meet the spring of 2026 and the stability of the state in the coming decades.
The turning point has come when decisions must be concrete, fast, systematic and result-oriented.
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