Vladimir Fesenko: Trump’s plot with Putin on Alaska will look like a US defeat

Photo: Gettyimages.com

On August 15, Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin will take place at Alaska. It has become known a few days ago, and since then it has not been coming out of news – is there a chance to end the war or, conversely, there will be an escalation?

Journalist Briefly about learned about all possible details of the future meeting in Head of the Center for Applied Political Studies “Penta” political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.

In Alaska Putin will try to quarrel Ukraine with the United States – Now it is roughly clear what Putin seeks. Zelensky said directly: we are offered to exchange Ukrainian territories in the same Ukrainian territories. That is, they still offer only surrender?

Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko Photo: uatv.ua

– Yes, nothing new is offered – the same unilateral assignment of Ukraine in exchange for allegedly for peace and ceasefire. At the same time, there is no guarantee that there will be no new ultimatum from Putin that we should remove our troops from the unocal part of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. And here it is unclear whether the US consent to the Russian status of the occupied territories, because Trump’s special representative Steve Witcoff (who returned from Moscow the day before. – Ed.) He does not say anything specific.

But for Ukraine it is in any case unacceptable. Which is recorded in the common position of Ukraine and European leaders. We will not recognize anything from Russia occupied by Russia. The position of Ukraine remains unchanged.

This means that for an indefinite part of the territory of Ukraine, which is so occupied by Russia, will remain under its control. But this does not in any way mean that we recognize the Russian status of these regions, but only that this issue is beyond the negotiation. Like Crimea. And we agreed to it in March in a joint declaration with the United States, which was signed in Jedda (Saudi Arabia). So far, this is the only way to get out of war.

But the question of unilateral withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions is such a pseudo -compromise plan of Putin. In it the rate is not on what we have to agree to it, though Putin himself understands well that we will not go for it. Here the calculation is made for another – that we will refuse …

– … And knowing that Trump is an unpredictable person, he will blame Zelensky of disrupting the peace process…

– That’s right! Trump does not like it, and he will guilty for the continuation of the war on Ukraine. For the fact that we do not want to make him a gift in the form of a Nobel Prize of Peace. And then it can again lead to restrictions on the supply of American weapons to Ukraine and changes in Trump’s attitude to the worse side to Ukraine and for the better – to Putin. Here is the main idea of the Russian dictator to reformat the negotiation process in its favor.

But Americans seem not very much trust in Putin, which is very noticeable according to many representatives of the Trump administration, from Vice President Jay Vens to the US Ambassador at NATO Matthew Witaker. Therefore, they talk about Putin’s check on Alaska that he should show his readiness for a real ceasefire, not at the expense of Ukraine’s unilateral concessions. It is an unequal exchange, since the territory of the employed Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions by several thousand square kilometers is larger than the territory that Russians can give in other Ukrainian regions.

The new Munich conspiracy will not work – President Zelensky has already said that the Russians want to deceive Trump in negotiations. Will they cheat or not?

– Yes, it is a clear negotiation trap from Putin. But Americans see that it is an unacceptable option for Ukraine. They are also not very sure that they will be able to agree on the ceasefire. So I do not think that Americans will be deceived. The problem is that Trump does not delve into the detail. It is important to him the principle that Putin agrees to cease fire and war as soon as possible. And the fact that Russia will then nominate a new ultimatum and at any moment can restore war, it does not care. Trump is important by the loud effect by October 10, when Nobel peace laureates are announced. And what happens then, it doesn’t matter.

– Zelensky also said that Ukraine would not let Russia deceive everyone in negotiations. What tools?

– The main tool for us is a common position with Europeans, and Americans are forced to take into account. And we see that Trump informs about negotiations with us and European leaders. And such a joint position in support of Ukraine lies the risk of the emergence of “new Munich” when Europeans and Americans in 1938 gave Hitler Czechoslovakia behind her back. And now Putin also wants to negotiate with Trump, behind the back of Ukraine. So that Trump himself forced Ukraine to fulfill these conditions.

But he will not work. Because if the conditions are unacceptable to us, Ukraine will simply not do it. Even if it is a risk for us to enter a new conflict with Trump. And most importantly, Europeans will also not agree.

Therefore, the factor of unity with Europe is, of course, very important. Well, another factor is that active work with the Americans is ongoing, we explain to them the risks of such a trap by Putin. At first, it will allegedly agree to the ceasefire, and then again nominate new ultimatums in Kiev. Therefore, the second tool is the active work of our diplomacy. The third factor is active work with American public opinion and with all our friends in the US who should influence Trump.

Zelensky’s involvement in Alaska negotiations is possible – The Ukrainian Ambassador to America Oksana Markarova said that during the talks with Russia, “the United States will act from the position of force”. How can they really press on these negotiations on Putin?

– This is a somewhat complementary statement for Trump and attempting to influence US president.

And what can Americans affect Russia? First, look for why the idea of negotiations came about. Because, as it turned out, Putin Trump matters. How many publications were in early August that Putin would not make concessions and will not agree to Trump ultimatums … But it turned out that it matters to Putin, he does not want to go for confrontation with Trump. This is the main factor and needs to be used. Press on Putin, force him to at least step -by -step concessions and compromises. This is the second factor. Well, the third – the Russians are afraid of new sanctions, including Russian oil, and strengthening the supply of weapons to Ukraine. And it can all be used as Putin’s pressure.

– Why does Trump not want to invite Vladimir Zelensky to meet Alaska?

– Now it is not quite correct to say that he does not want to invite. So far, the issue of Zelensky’s participation in Alaska negotiations has not been resolved. And the Americans have no negative attitude to Zelensky and his participation in the negotiations. Only Putin has a negative attitude.

Zelensky’s participation depends on two factors. The first is whether there will be real ceasefire negotiations. If they are, Zelensky’s participation is needed. And the second factor: if there are a high chance of signing a political declaration on ceasefire stages, Zelensky will be required to sign such a declaration.

And as a demonstration that Trump did another peacekeeping miracle. As he was in the White House, he was sitting happy between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Pashinyan and Aliyev. So the same video needs Trump and Alaska. And if there is no chance of a real breakthrough in the negotiations – ceasefire, then it will end with conflict and failure. And this is not needed for Americans.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have signed a truce agreement. Trump very much hopes that the same photo will appear with the Presidents of Ukraine and Russia. Photo: social networks

Any Trump’s plot with Putin will look like a US defeat – Knowing the unpredictable nature of the US President, can there be some plot between Trump and Putin?

– There is such a risk, and such a scenario also causes fears. They try to negotiate this since February, but we see that nothing works. And all because there were strong contradictions between them. Including those concerning China. Due to partnerships between Russia and China, it will not work to agree.

In addition, Russia and the US have their own species for the Arctic, and here they are also irresistible competitors. Yes, the Russians can offer: “Take Greenland, and everything else is ours.” But Europeans will not agree with that.

The second important point: the Russians will come to the Arctic by the Chinese. And this is absolutely unnecessary for Americans, because it is an increase in China’s position. And it is very concerned about Americans. Therefore, Americans understand that any Trump’s plot with Putin will look like their defeat. Therefore, there will be no conspiracy.

– The following scenario is obvious: the fire stops, sanctions are being lifted from Russia, after which it restores its power and again attaches not only Ukraine but also on European countries. Trump doesn’t want to see that?

– Yes, Trump does not like sanctions, but he cannot remove them himself, this requires a solution to Congress. In addition, most of the sanctions were imposed by Europe, and without it it is impossible to remove them. And there will be no quick solutions. It is necessary to negotiate with Europeans here, but just to lure sanctions against Russia. Therefore, sanctions will only be shot in stages, depending on the real ceasefire.

And give a historical example. During the Soviet Union in the United States, the so-called Jackson-Venik law was adopted, which imposed sanctions against the USSR for obstructing the immigration of Jews. It was adopted in the 1970s, and abolished when the Soviet Union stopped existing for a long time. That is, sanctions are easier to impose than to cancel.

Putin will never give up his aggression – In order for Putin’s aggressiveness, even after the end of the war, does not become a new conflict factor, it is necessary to contain Putin’s aggression.

– What is the restraint? Active weapons of Ukraine and Europe. If Putin understands that he will be opposed by strong opponents in which he does not win the war, then there will be no new war. And if he see that Ukraine is weak, separated and we have an internal political war, then it is guaranteed that Putin will attack us again.

And then the risks will be for Europe. And Europeans now understand it. There are already long -term weapons plans for an increase in defense costs within NATO.

– Why did Putin agree to a meeting on Alaska? These are the ancient phantom pain of the Russians (“America, give us the land of Alasoc”)? Why was it chosen for the meeting place?

– The main symbolism is that it is on the border of Russia and the United States, that it is a place that is historically united by the United States and Russia. This is a compromise that has probably arranged both parties for various reasons. But this compromise is more in favor of Trump than Putin. The negotiations will take place in Trump, not Putin. It also matters in diplomacy. However, Alaska has always been a symbol of Russia’s humiliation after the Russian Empress Catherine sold it to America. The Russians still bite their lips to the blood because of it.

Source: kp.ua