Vladimir Fesenko about the new government: now the role of oligarchs is minimized, the frames are chosen by Zelensky and Yermak

Photo: FB Yulia Sviridenko

The resignation of the government, apparently, has already resolved the issue. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decided to dramatically shift the power of the government in the framework of the next “renewal of power”. But to do this, you need to have a serious staff reserve.

Where are candidates for higher state positions, whether they are now in the presidential clip, whether the influence of oligarchs and financial groups on power is preserved – on these and many other issues Briefly about replies Ukrainian political scientist, head of the center Applied political research Vladimir Fesenko.

Yulia Sviridenko is an effective mediator, but without power ambition – The issue of change of government seems to be resolved. Yulia Sviridenko will change Denis Shmigal as a prime minister. But everyone says Sviridenko is a “shmigal in a skirt”: he has no political ambitions and does not claim a separate role in politics. Then why change “sewing to soap”?

Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko. Photo: AZERTAG.AZ

– The most popular explanation is that it is an intensification of Yermak’s position in the government. And in view of everything, the Shmigal will also remain in the government and will be responsible for the Ministry of Defense. So it is most likely rocking. In fact, the government’s policy will not change, because the economic policy of the government has previously formed Yulia Sviridenko, and it will still form it. In addition, the relationship between the President’s office and the government will also not change.

But what is the point of replacing Denis Shmigal with Yulia Sviridenko? I will pay attention to the important detail. Last year, Sviridenko was a formal head of the Ukrainian delegation, who went to negotiations to the United States on a resource agreement with America. At that time, the delegation was Yermak, and he was naturally her real leader. But Sviridenko traveled not just so, and she was not just a scenery for the head of the Presidential Office.

It was this year who became the main Ukrainian mediator with the Trump administration for a resource agreement. And she established effective business contacts with one of the key figures in the US administration – with the Minister of Finance US Scott Bessent. And the fact that Sviridenko has a business relationship with one of the key figures in the Trump administration is an argument for its appointment to the new Prime Minister.

The second important point is that she managed to defend Ukrainian positions in negotiations with the United States, to neutralize Trump himself about $ 300 billion in debt that Ukraine allegedly owed the United States.

That is, Sviridenko proved herself as an effective negotiator. And it seems to me that her appointment to the post of Prime Minister is just due to the fact that our relations with the United States are now reaching a new level. They become more complex and ambiguous. Therefore, the importance of direct contacts between the Ukrainian government and the Trump administration is increasing.

It is clear that the key role will remain in Yermak and, of course, according to Zelensky himself, but working contact with the Trump administration on economic issues will be carried out by Sviridenko. It will have a mandate for direct negotiations with Americans on economic issues.

-But here the primordial question is-should the Prime Minister be a separate political figure, can he only be the President’s policy executor?

-Within the framework of broad political, institutional and legal logic, and even from the point of view of the Constitution, of course, the Prime Minister is a PEP (Political Exposed Person)-a public political figure.

But we periodically, not only now, the role of the Prime Minister was somewhat lower and was limited in opportunities. That is, the Prime Minister was not an independent political figure or his independence was very limited.

And Denis Shmigal accepted these rules of the game, why he lasted for so long. From the very beginning, he realized that the main is the President’s office, and that all key decisions were made there. He accepted this role – the executive body. With Sviridenko, the situation will remain unchanged, with the only difference being that it will have greater independence in the formation of economic policy. But she will be the same performer.

But our prime minister will become an independent political figure after the military parliamentary elections. Then there will be no one -party majority in parliament, but there will be a coalition in the Council, which will form a government that will be less dependent on the President’s office.

We have a de facto presidential republic, and only the President is affected by the President – But the appointment of politically inactive Sviridenko shows that it is a fully conscious policy – to appoint people loyal to people and block perspective politicians?

– There is nothing new here, so it was for all presidents who sought to take loyal people to the Cabinet of Ministers. I will remind you that President Poroshenko with great intrigues has achieved the resignation of Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, who did not want to go. Another example is that Poroshenko did his best to make Vladimir Groysman loyal to him at the time. Another thing is that he later got out of Poroshenko’s control and began to lead his political game.

But this is a fact-every president, without exception, seeks the Prime Minister, as, incidentally, the Prosecutor General and the heads of law enforcement agencies-his people were.

And most likely, this will happen in the near future. Independent Prime Minister is possible in purely parliamentary republics, where the powers of the president are as limited as possible. These are, in fact, ceremonial figures, such as in Germany or Poland.

-But we have a parliamentary-presidential republic, and the main word in personnel policy should be under parliament?

-Well, first, I want to remind that the parliamentary majority is now for the “servants of the people”, which is the presidential faction. In addition, the role of the President is also great in the Parliamentary Presidential Republic. But in reality, all these terms are very conditional, it is political, not legal constructions. We do not have the legal status of parliamentary-presidential or presidential-parliamentary republic. Nowhere in the Constitution of Ukraine, as in the constitutions of other countries, this is not recorded. Everything is determined by the ratio of authority.

I will tell you what is the difference between a parliamentary-presidential republic and a presidential-parliamentary one. THERE ARE A clear criterion. In the Presidential Parliamentary Republic, which we had for Kuchma and Yanukovych, the President has the right to resign the Prime Minister with his sole decision and does not need the consent of Parliament. And if the President cannot resign on his own, and this requires parliamentary consent, it is a parliamentary-presidential republic.

From this point of view, we have a formally parliamentary-presidential republic now, but de facto presidential republic, when the president controls almost everything-both the government, the parliament, and all law enforcement agencies. Even Kuchma did not have such a full influence on the political system of the country that Zelensky is now. But this situation will change because after any parliamentary election, Zelensky will no longer have a majority in the Council, but there will be a coalition of political forces. The one -party majority in parliament will almost certainly be.

– The emergence of a large number of new people in this personnel permutation is not expected to speak of a personnel famine in the Presidential House. Is it so if there are scandalous figures in power as the Minister of National Unity of Chernyshov?

– Most likely, Chernyshov will not be in the new government. But it is not just that the authorities have a personnel famine. The personnel famine of Zelensky was all the time, from the first days of his stay in power. That is why he had a installation – to take into power young people who are not related to old elites.

But the personnel famine has always been. Listen, a person came to power without having his political team. We know how the deputy corps of “servants of the people” was formed – there is half of random people. Someone recommended the election headquarters of Zelensky. And some even thought they would not get to Parliament. As Mariana Bezugla is now widely known. Therefore, the main reason for the personnel famine of the current authorities is the absence of its political team, which is the main reserve. Therefore, since 2020, Zelensky and Yermak began to look for footage on the side.

– What is the main problem of the personnel reserve of power?

– In fact, it is not only Zelensky, but also a problem for the civil service. First of all, this is due to the war and the departure of some of the personnel.

Yulia Sviridenko proved that she is a wonderful negotiator and found a language with the Trump team. Photo: FB Yulia Sviridenko

Now not all Pepi want to go to power – Where do they come from now?

– First of all, these are those officials who have already worked earlier, or for Poroshenko, or even Yanukovych. As, for example, the Minister of Finance Marchenko or the same deputy head of the Presidential Office – Tatars.

The second source is a bureaucratic and administrative reserve. People who worked in various positions in the state apparatus have shown themselves well, and they were given the opportunity to advance their career ladders. As, for example, Viceremier Olga Stephanyshyn, who was engaged in European integration for Poroshenko. Someone came out of business as Prime Minister Smigal, or from private companies, someone initially proved to be a governor.

Therefore, different sources are public service, it is business and politics, political environment. Many people came from the Zelensky team.

There are several more reasons for the scarcity of personnel and why people do not want to go into power. They do not want to risk now, waiting for the elections after the war. They are just afraid that they will come for a short time. If the war is over, then the authorities can change why risk?

The second reason is more serious, and it will relate to all new executives after the war. The fact is that all peppers (public political figures) have to declare their income for life. And this is a big problem for them. Declaration is a burdensome procedure that many do not want to contact. And so we will have much less than those who want to go to deputies, ministers and other public office after the war.

– What qualities do the office of the President pay attention to the government?

– These are two key requirements – business, managerial qualities and loyalty to the current authorities. And this applies not only to Zelensky, but also to all previous presidents. Although for different presidents, priority of these qualities was alternated. One of the presidents first wanted loyalty, and someone – professionalism. In general, they do not appoint or not recommend the minister of the person who will be disloyal to the president.

– Earlier, the ministers were taken from the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada, now no. Does this mean that Zelensky was disappointed in them?

– Why – many of the ministers came from deputies. The same Kubrakov, Fedorov, Tkachenko. On the other hand, the answer may be that the reserve with ministers from deputies can be exhausted.

The event has never influenoed personnel rearrangements in power – Is the policy of reconciliation of personnel permutations in power with Western partners is preserved? It is very similar that Sviridenko was transported to the United States when she was engaged in minerals and to Europe, where she went to a conference on Ukraine’s restoration.

– There is a slightly different sequence. She was not brought to the US, and at first she effectively showed herself in a resource agreement with America. Sviridenko was elected premiere because she has proven herself well.

As for coordination of personnel appointments with Western partners, it is a myth. Sometimes there were recommendations from the same Americans or Europeans, but there was never a direct instructions. Sometimes, let’s say so, Kiev takes into account their desire or informs Western partners about permutations, but there is no direct instruction.

– Are there any creatures of oligarchs and financial groups in the presidential reserve now?

– In general – no. Currently, Yermak plays an important role in the personnel issue, but the main is Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself. Currently, the role of oligarchs is minimized. Even Prime Minister Smigal, who was associated with the post of Cabinet chairman with Renat Akhmetov, was not seen in any large -scale lobbying of his interests. Nowadays, this is not the level when the oligarchs had whole parliamentary factions and their settings in the government.

– But the Minister of Education Oksen Lisovy is associated, for example, with the Long family – Stanislav and Oles Dovgoy, who was previously secretary of the Kyiv City Council.

– No, this is not that Oles long does not play a big role now, but on the contrary – goes from politics. These are just personal connections and no more. Currently, only two people – Zelensky and Yermak – are affected by personnel appointments. But sometimes they can listen to other people’s advice.

Source: kp.ua