US Retail Sales, Fed Outlook, and Import Costs Paint Mixed Picture for Traders

Import Prices FIRM, LED By Fuel and Industrial Goods The US IMPORT PRICE INDEX INCREASED BY 0.4% in July, Reversing Two Months of Declines. Fuel Import Prices Led The Rise With A 2.7%MONTHLY GAIN – PETROLEUM UP 2.4%, Natural Gas Up 4.7%. Nonfuel Import Prices Advanced 0.3%, Reflection Higher Costs for Industrial Suppplies, Consumer Goods, and Capital Goods. Year-on-Year, Overall Import Prices Were Still Down 0.2%, Driven by a 12.1% Drop in Fuel Prices. Meanwhile, Export Prices Edged Up Just 0.1% on the month, with noonagricultural goods Supporting the Gain.

Export Gains Slow As External Demand Levels Off Export Prices Rose Only Slightly in July, Up 0.1%, After A 0.5% Rise in June. Agricultural Exports Were Flat on the MONTH, WHILE Nonagricultural Goods – Particularly Automotive and Capital Goods – Provides Some Lift. Year-Over-Year, Export Prices Increased 2.2%, Driven by Firming Prices in Industrial and Manufactugred Goods. However, Destination-Based Data Shows Deckling Prices to Japan and Flat Results for Mexico, Suggesting Uneven Global Demand.

Outlook: Cautotuosly Bullish, But Fed Path Remains Unclear The Combination of Strong Retail Figures, A Rebound in Regional Manufacturing, and Firming Import Costs Suggests Continued Economic Resiliency. However, With Fuel Prices Rebounding and Supple Availliness Still Tight, Input Costs Could Pressure Margins. For Traders, The Short-Term Bias Remains Cautotyly Bullish, Supported by Improving Business Sentiment and Stable Consumer Spending-But Attmentation Remains on the Federal Reserer.

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