“Perceived ODDS of A US Recession Peaked AT 66% Back in April as Wall Street Banks Were Raising Red Flags, Yethy Since Plunged As Trade Negotias Advanced.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
Recession Fears Balloooned Earlier This Year WHEN The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Gdpnow Indicator Predicted A 1.5% Contraction for the First Quarter of The Year, while the .5%.
Tensions Escalated in March as US President Donald Trump Announced A Series of Reciprocal Tariffs on What Hat Has Branded “Liberation Day,” Rattling Investors ALREADY WARY. The Fed’s Decision to Slow The Pace of Shrinking ITS BALANCE SHEET ADDEDED FUCERNS.
By april, Wall Street Giants Like Goldman Sachs and Jpmorgan Were Raising Red Flags. Goldman Put Recession Odds at 45% at the Time, and Polymarket Odds Climbed As High As 66%. Another Spike Came In May After former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellenn Warned that Trump’s Tariffs Could Have A “Tremendously AdVerse” Effect on the Economy.
Yet Behind the Headlines, Negotias with China Progressed. The Market Coined the So-Called Taco (Trump Always Chicken Out) Trade, Referencesing The US President’s Negotias Pattern, Where Tariffs Are Announced But Then Reversed.
Goldman Sachs Cut ITS 12-MONTH RECESSION ODDS TO 30% LAST MONTH, REFLECTING A MORE OPTIMIIC OUTLOOK as Financial Conditions Eased and Trade Threats Receded.
Whather A Recession Hits in 2025 Remains Uncertain. On Polymarket, A Recession Bet Pays Out if the National Bureau of Economic Research Declares One or If The US Posts Two Straight Quarters of Negative GDP Growth.
