US Jobless Claims Rise; Regional Manufacturing Weakens, Inflation Pressures Build

Manufacturing Outlook Dips As Orders Turn Negative The august manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Revealed Weaker Activity Across Several Key Indicators. The General Activity Index Droped Sharply From 15.9 to -0.3, and New Orders Slipped Into Negative Territory at -1.9 -Their FIRST Sub -Zero Reading Since April. Shipments Also Fell To 4.5, and the Employment Index Droped to 5.9, Thought It Still Indicated Net Hiring.

While the avereage Workweek Improved Slightly, The Weakening In Orders Suggests Softer Demand Across The Manupacting Sector. Importantly, 74% of Surveyed FIRMS REPORTED NO EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, WHILE ONLY 16% SAW An INCREASE. These Stagnant Conditions May Weight on Regional Output Expectations and Could Constrain Broader Industrial Performance in Q3.

Price Pressures Mount; FIRMS EYE COMPETITOR PRICE HIKES Price Pressures Remain Elevated. The Prices Paid Index Jumped 8 Points to 66.8 – The Highest Since May 2022 – While Prices Received Rose to 36.1. FIRMS ALSO LIFTED THEIR 12-MONTH FORWARD PRICE Experts to 4.1%, Up from 3.8% in May, Suggesting Prting Power Remains Strong Despite Economic Headwinds.

Over Half The Surveyed Firms Anticipate Rising Industry Costs with the Nethin the NEXT SIX MONHS, WITH 71.4% Expecting Competitors to Raise Prices – An A Median Expectation Thot. Months. While Compensation Growth Expectations Easted To 3.5% from 4.0%, Higher Input and Output Price Expectations May Kep Inflation Indicators Elegated in the Near Term.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook On Slowing Labor and Manufacting Signals The Combination of Weakening Labor Market Indicators, Deckling Manufacturing Orders, and Persentic Price Pressures Paints A CAUTIONALY PICTURE. While Future Expectations in the Survey Remated Positive, Current Conditions Are Deteriorating. The Near-Term Outlook for US Equities and Industriaals is BearishParticularly If Softning Demand Collides with Sticky Inflation, Complicating The Federal Reserve’s Path on Rates. Traders Should Monitor UpComing Employment Data and Inflation Prints Closely for Confirmation.