The anticipated rollback of electricity price caps in Ukraine could lead to a decrease in the availability of imported electricity starting in April. This decision follows the regulatory body’s earlier temporary increase in price caps, which is set to revert to previous levels on March 31.
According to energy expert Prokip, this change poses a significant risk of reduced electricity imports. He stated, “On March 31, the price caps will revert to previous levels, which is highly likely to result in a certain reduction in the availability of imported electricity.”
The extent of this potential reduction will depend on two main factors: the severity of the electricity deficit in Ukraine and the pricing dynamics in neighboring European markets. If prices in the European Union remain high while Ukraine maintains low price caps, importing electricity during peak hours may become economically unfeasible.
Experts have indicated that the risks of power outages remain elevated, particularly during the summer and autumn-winter months. Specifically, July, August, November, and December are expected to see increased demand alongside a persistent power deficit. During these months, the situation may resemble the electricity supply challenges experienced during winter.
However, in periods of lower demand, there is a possibility that imports could sufficiently cover the deficit, provided there are no new large-scale missile strikes affecting infrastructure.
Ukraine's decision to revert electricity price caps could significantly impact the availability of imported electricity, raising concerns about potential power shortages, particularly during peak demand months. The situation remains contingent on both domestic deficits and European market conditions.