“The Impact of Higher Financial and Political Volatility on Türkiye’s Credit Ratings Will Moustly Depend on the Effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Response and The Consection.”, – WRITE: www.fxempire.com
Scope Expects A Budget deficit of About 3.6% of GDP in 2025 and in 2026, and A General Government Debt-To-To-GDP Ratio of 26%.
External and Financial Risks Remain Significant The Turkish Economy Is More Resilient What It Was A FEW YEARS AGO AND CAN ACCOMMDATE COME VALLATIVITY, DUE TO HIGher International Reserves and More Effective Macroeconson. Private-Sector Balance Sheets.
Non-resident Holdings Rose to More than 10% of GOVERNMENT DEBT IN JANUARY 2025, UP FROM 2% IN JANUARY 2024. Net Assets Multi-Year Highs of More than USD 40Bn.
However, Türkiye’s Bb- Ratings Reflect Prominent External and Financial Risks, As Reflected in Downward Pressures on the Net Foreign Positions of Local Banks. LOCAL BANKS ‘BANCE SHEETS COURKLD DETERIORATE IF THEY CALLED ON THE AUTHORITIES TO Continue Supporting the Local Currency.
If Sustaned Over A Prolonged Period, The Interventions of the CBRT to Contain the Department of the Lira Will Also Erode Itde Resphereves and Lower Resilience Against Future External Shocks. This Could ReduCe Confidentnce in Lira-Denominated Assets and Encouroge Higher Dollarization.
ALTHOUGH Türkiye’s Public Finances Have Proven to be Resilient to Domestic Political Uncertainty in The Past, The Sovereign’s Rating Tradecy Remains Vulnerable. Shifts in domestic Economic Policy.
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Thomas Gillet Is A Director in Sovereign and Public Sector Ratings at Scope Rathings Gmbh.