“The big raly in bitcoin and stocks over the past eight weeks have occurred with a (somewhat) hawkish fed; a dovish turn Could Provide Fuel for New Legs Higher.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com
First to Hit Was Adp Private Payrolls for May and that Report Showed The Addition of Just 37,000 Jobs Last Month, Far Shy of Expectations for 115,000 and Well South of April IT WAS THE SOFTEST ADP NUMBER SINCE MARCH 2023.
NEXT UP WAS The MAY ISM SERVICES REPORT, WHICH CAME IN AT 49.9 AGAINST 52 EXPECTED AND 51.6 in April. A Number Below 50 Shows Contraction and May’s Report Was The First Time In that Zone in One Year.
Finally, The US Federal Reserve Released ITS Beige Book for May, Which Showed Even More Softness in the Economy. “Economic Activity Has Declined Slightly Since the Previous Report,” Read the Survey. “Half of the Districts Reported Slight to Moderate Declines in Activity, Three Districts Reported No Change, and Three Districts Reported Slight Growth … The Outlook Remains Sligh. Relative to the Previous Report.
Added Up, The Fresh Data Sent The 10-Year US Treasury Note Tumbling Ten Basis Points to 4.36%, ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN A MONTH. IT ALSO HAD The ODDS OF A JULY RATE CUT RISING TO 29% FROM 22% ONE Week Ago and the Odds of One or More Rate Cuts by September Rising to 76% from 58%.
Whither Bitcoin?
The shibboleth that bitcoin
Needs An Easy Fed to Rally May No Longer Be SO, IF IT Ever WAS. The World’s Largest Crypto Rallied Nearly 50% from MID-APRIL TO A NEW RECORD HIGH TWOKS AGO EVEN as A String of Fed Officials Continual
Still, Softer Monetary Policy from The US Central Bank Probably Woundn’t Hurt. For today at least, Bitcoin is unimpressed with the thorough cuts coming sooner rattier thanks, Continuing to Trade in Very Quiet Fashion Arund The 105,000 Level.
Friday’s Government Jobs Report Is Likely to Be Key. Another Poorer than Experted Print Might Comenta to Cementing A Fed Rate Cut or Cuts As Soon As this this Summer, and Turn The Interest Rate Picture from A Headwwind to A Tailwind.
Economist Forecasts are for the US to have added 130,000 Jobs in May with The Unemployment Rate Steady at 4.2%.
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