March 23, 2025
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This Indicator Supports Bullish Case in Bitcoin and Nasdaq, For Now

The Relief Could Be Short-Lived per Some Observers.”, – WRITE: www.coindesk.com

The Relief Could Be Short-Lived per Some Observers.Updated Mar 21, 2025, 8:36 PM UTCPublished Mar 21, 2025, 12:10 PM UTC

A Key Gauge of Economic Sentiment and Corporate Credit Health Has Receded From Its Recent Multi-Month Highs in A Positive Development for Risk-Taking in Stocks and Crypto. The Relief, However, Could Be Short-Lived, Per Some Observers.

The Indicator in Consideration is the Ice/Bofa US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS), WHICH MEASURES The AVERAGE YIELD DIFFERENCE Treasury Securities, Adjusted for Embedded Optionality in the Bonds.

IT’s Widly Tracked As a Credit Risk Barometter, with The Widening Spread Representing Growing Investor Concern About Corporate Defaults or Economic Weakness, Often Leading Tovtors Assets Such as Technology Stocks and Cryptocurrencies.

The oas, repressenting the premium investors Demand for Holding High-Yelding Bonds Over the Relating Safer Treasury Notes, Has Droped to 3.2% from The Six-Month High of.

The Decline in the Spread Supports a Renewed Upswing in Bitcoin (BTC) and Nasdaq.

The Spread Surged by 100 Basis Points in Four Weeks to Mid-March as President Donald Trump’s Tariffs Raised The Recession Spectre. Durying that time, Both Btc and Nasdaq Took A Beating, With The Cryptocurrency Falling to Lows Under $ 80k.

Temporari Relief?Analysts Expect the Oas Spread to Widen Further in the Coming Weeks As the Negative Impact of Trump’s Tariffs Becomes Clear, Accounting To Mint and Reuters.

“We Think This is Just Getting Started and Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better,” Hans Mikkelsen, Managing Director of Credit Strategy at TD Securities, SAID IN A Recent Client.

ICE/BOFA US HIGH YIELD INDEX Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS). (TradingView/Coindesk)ICE/BOFA US HIGH YIELD INDEX Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS). (TradingView/Coindesk)

Apply Technical Analysis Principles to the Oas Chart Suggests the Same.

The Spread has moved past the Three-year descending Trendline, Warranting High Alert from Risk Asset Investors.

Omkar GodboleOmkar Godbole is a co-managing Editor on Coindesk’s Markets Team Based in Mumbai, Holds A Masters Degree in Finance and A Charted Market Technician (CMT) Member. Omkar Previoously Worked at FxStreet, Writing Research on Currency Markets and As Fundamental Analyst at Currency and Commodities Desk at Mumbai-Based Brokerage Houses. OMKAR HOLDS SMALL AMUNTS OF BITCOIN, Ether, Bittorrent, Tron and Dot.

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Omkar Godbole

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