The NBU rejoices that its inflationary forecast has not come true and promises stable prices and a steady hryvnia

NBU inflationary forecast

In August 2025, the annual inflation continued to decline, reaching 13.2%. Compared to the previous month the cost of goods and services decreased by 0.2%. This is confirmed by the official data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The real dynamics of consumer prices was lower than the NBU predicted in the July report, which is explained by the increase in the supply of agricultural products of the new crop. The main factors of price pressure have weakened through the effect of monetary measures of the National Bank and reducing the impact of the labor market. Basic inflation remained appropriate to expectations. The NBU informs about it.

Annual rise in prices for untreated food slows down – up to 23.9% The cost of individual vegetables has declined a year or a year or significantly slowed down the increase due to a larger harvest compared to last year. The rise in fruit prices also slowed down somewhat, but remained high due to spring harvesting from frost. The ratio of the rise in price of flour and individual cereals has improved. However, the cost of meat of all species continued to increase rapidly due to the increase in production costs and reducing livestock.

Basic inflation continued to fall – up to 11.4% The rate of rise in price of processed products slowed down to 17.7% per annum. For example, there was a slowdown in the rise in prices for dairy products, oil, bakery products. The cost of non -food products also increased slower – up to 2.8% p/g. The tendency to cheap clothing and shoes has deepened.

Inflation in the service sector has accelerated slightly – up to 14.1%, mainly due to the increase in prices for mobile communications. Acceleration has also been noted in financial services, taxi and health insurance. At the same time, the increase in the cost of most other services continued to slow down.

Administratively regulated prices increased a little slower – up to 10.8% per annum. This is due to the decrease in the rate of rise in price of alcoholic beverages. However, tobacco prices increase.

The growth rate of fuel has slowed up to 6.0%. This is due to a small fall in world market quotations on hydrocarbons and strengthening the hryvnia against the euro.

Waiting for the perspective The overall slowdown of inflation lasts for the third month in a row, exceeding the rates. Basic inflation meets the expectations of the NBU. In the coming months, a tendency to reduce consumer prices is expected to continue. This will be facilitated by the further impact of the new yields and measures of the National Bank to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments and the stability of the exchange rate.

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