“The arrival of international aid makes it possible to maintain gold and foreign exchange reserves at a sufficient level.”, — write: www.unian.ua
The arrival of international aid makes it possible to maintain gold and foreign exchange reserves at a sufficient level.
The receipt of international aid makes it possible to maintain international reserves at a sufficient level / collage UNIAN, photo UNIAN, photo ua.depositphotos.comIn Ukraine, the demand for currency from the population increased, which became the main factor of additional pressure on the exchange rate and led to the appreciation of the dollar. This is stated in the Financial Stability Report published by the National Bank.It is noted that the net demand for the currency is growing due to the recovery of the economy and the revival of imports. So far, the relaxation of some of the restrictions on the movement of capital has had a fairly moderate impact on the market, because more than a third of payments abroad as a result of liberalization were made by companies using their own currency.
“At the same time, the demand for cash currency from the population increased in autumn. The increase in demand is the main factor of additional pressure on the exchange rate. However, the National Bank has the opportunity to cover the currency deficit and smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations,” the NBU explained.
The regulator emphasizes that a sufficient supply of international reserves will remain despite significant interventions.
“The National Bank will continue to be a key participant in the foreign exchange market, and its interventions will be the main tool for balancing the supply and demand for currency,” the document states.
According to the NBU, the receipt of international aid makes it possible to maintain international reserves at a sufficient level, despite the increase in demand for foreign currency. Thus, since the IV quarter of last year, the volume of reserves exceeds the 100% level of adequacy according to the IMF criterion, and at the end of 2024 it is expected to be close to 120%. According to the forecast of the National Bank, the adequacy of reserves according to this criterion will gradually decrease, but will still exceed 100% throughout 2025.
Dollar exchange rate in Ukraine – expert forecastBy the end of 2025, inflation in Ukraine may slow down to 7%, and the dollar exchange rate may rise to the level of 45.7 hryvnias, according to the macroeconomic forecast of the ICU investment group.
Analysts believe that after inflation slows down in the second half of 2024, the NBU may be more open to a moderate devaluation of the hryvnia. However, experts predict that the rate of devaluation of the hryvnia next year will exceed 10%.
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