The EU returns duties and quotas for Ukrainian products. What are the consequences for business and logists?

For Ukraine, an era of “trade visa waiver” with the EU – a mechanism that has saved Ukrainian exports in war conditions. Under pressure from Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, the European Commission returns rigid duties and quotas, which threatens Ukrainian exporters by losses of annual income on almost € 3 billion and collapse of logistics chains. What to do business in new trade conditions? Oleksandr Kyrylyuk says, Operations Director of the Zammler Logistics Companies Group

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After June 5, 2025, Ukraine loses the effect of “trade visa waiver” with the EU – a mechanism for canceling duties and quotas, which became critical for Ukrainian exports in war. The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine predicts that the abolition of the free trade regime with the European Union can lead to the loss of Ukrainian exporters in the amount of € 2.9 billion annual income due to the return of market tariffs.

The European Commission’s decision was expected to the market: there have been heavy discussions for more than a year, especially for Ukrainian agricultural products. Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania were the greatest critics of “military privileges” for Ukraine. Poland, as a key transit and trading partner of Ukraine, played a crucial role in forming new rules.

Instead of preferences that have been in force since 2022, the transition period to negotiate a new trade format and amendments toThe EU and Ukraine Association Agreement, signed in 2014, created a deep and comprehensive free trade area, which allows Ukrainian business to receive preferential access to the European market. After the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine, the European Union introduced special measures in June 2022 that provided duty -free access for Ukrainian products to the European market.

“Data-Title> Association Agreements between Ukraine and the EU.

The termination of “trade visa waiver” between Ukraine and the European Union means significant changes for Ukrainian exports and logistics, which will have to adapt business and state structures.

Changes for export For Ukrainian Metallurgical Products, the European Parliament has continued privileges for another year, which will allow to preserve the export positions of this industry until June 2026. For other goods, quotas and duties are returned, in some places tougher than they were by 2022. About 30 groups of goods, including agricultural products, are key to the Ukrainian economy.

In 2024, Ukrainian exports significantly exceeded the proposed quotas. For example, according to Forbes Ukraine, corn will be 650,000 tonnes for corn, and actual exports – 13.76 million tonnes. This is 24 times higher. For sugar – 21,000 tons of quotas against 326,000 tons of exports – almost 16 times more, for honey – 6000 tons of quota against 54,000 tons of exports. And these are just some of the dozen names.

Last year, Ukraine’s agrarian exports to the EU was 55% of the total. Restrictions are expected to reduce exports by about 10%, which will adversely affect economic growth. In general, the export potential for € 3–3.5 billion is obtained under the restriction. According to the Ministry of Economy, the negative impact on the GDP of Ukraine will be about 1%.

Impact on logistics The reduction of agroexports will hit the transit. Currently, about 12% of trucks crossing the border with Poland carry agricultural products. Motor transport is exported mainly highly profitable, perishable goods for which separate queues on the border are created.

If agroesport is halved, it will lead to a shortage of transport loads. Drivers who transported agricultural products will be forced to look for new downloads, mostly imported. This provokes the increase in rates on imported transportation by 5-10%, and for distant destinations – Germany, France, Spain – even more.

Export logistics will be cheaper due to excess transport, but import prices will increase. An additional call is empty runs that will become more frequent and the logistics crisis for the individual sectors. Particularly affected are refrigerated transportation – chilled poultry meat, dairy products, berries.

Thousands of trucks can be left out of work monthly, and the reorientation of such logistics flows to other markets takes time and resources. The situation is complicated by the fact that the auto transportation market has already decreased by 10%over the last year. New restrictions will only deepen the crisis.

Steps towards the test The transition period for negotiations on a new trade between Ukraine and the EU is a time for adaptation, finding new markets and negotiating long -term decisions.

Three steps that Ukrainian business and the state should make:

• Diversify markets, seeking opportunities in Asia, in the Middle East, Latin America.
• To invest in logistics – to accelerate customs clearance, to digitalize processes, to optimize transport corridors.
• To defend Ukraine’s interests in negotiations, in particular for an agricultural sector, where the risks are highest.

The abolition of trade visa waiver is a serious challenge for the Ukrainian economy, including exporters and logistics. We lose billions of foreign exchange revenue, potential workplaces and logistics chains that have been building for years.

Ukrainian logistics is always the first to feel the consequences of any changes in trade-and it will become an indicator of the effectiveness of a new trade policy with the EU. At the same time, it is an incentive for development: finding new markets, modernization of logistics, strengthening the domestic markets.

Ukraine needs effective diplomacy, strategic planning and coordination between the state and business. The faster we adapt, the smaller the losses will be more – the chances of growth.

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