Spring of peace did not bring: how will develop events at the front and in summer politics

Photo: FB General Staff of the Armed Forces

Spring political and military seasons in the world and Ukraine have not produced the expected result. Donald Trump’s announced negotiations to end the war in fact ended in failure.

Instead, there is a new escalation on the front and the shelling of Ukrainian cities has intensified. Russian dictator Putin has once again made it clear that it was not going to stop the war, continuing to make pre -compliance with pre -compliance, and the front is preparing a new offensive at the front.

Journalist Briefly about He understood diplomatic and military results of spring and most importantly – what to expect in the summer.

The peaceful process will go in parallel with combat actions This spring, many hoped at least at the beginning of peace talks. After all, the US President pressed on Ukraine so that Kyiv made concessions for peace, up to the abandonment of the territories and joining NATO. He even accused Zelensky almost in solving the war.

However, it was Russia who has shown, then it is not going to end the war. And in general, she wanted to sneak for these peace talks. Thus, in talks to Turkey, the Russian Federation sent a delegation, whose members were not even authorized to make any decisions. Not to mention that Putin was going there and was not going. He abandoned the 30-day truce, moreover, he increased the fire. In recent days, Russia is constantly attacking Ukrainian cities and objects of hundreds of drones and dozens of winged and ballistic missiles.

Therefore, the only achievement of the so -called Negotiations in Turkey was the exchange of prisoners under the following formula “1000 per 1000”.

But International analyst of the Ukrainian Institute of Future Elijah Kus He believes that, despite the failure, the main outcome of this spring was the restoration of the track of peace talks.

– It is a restart of the peace process, the beginning of peace talks from the moment of 2022 and, in fact, the definition of the negotiation frame – who is ready to go. The parties have identified their “red lines”, which no one is ready to break. This is the main result of spring. It must be acknowledged that there is no result of these efforts. But the process will continue in parallel with the fighting on the front. In fact, this has always been the case in the history of armed conflicts. But in any case, by the end of 2025, there are no serious shifts in the peace process to expect,-the expert said.

The exchange of prisoners of war “1000 to 1000” was the main positive spring. Photo: TG Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Trump is not worth hoping Trump, after his statements about what they were with Vladimir (Putin) and who did not want to finish the conversation during negotiation with the Russian dictator, suddenly began to see. In one of the posts on his social network Truth Social for May 26, he wrote that “something happened to Putin. He became quite crazy! ”. Moreover, Trump began to suspect that Putin wanted to capture the whole of Ukraine.

Trump also stated that he was considering the introduction of new sanctions and tariffs if Putin has not stopped aggression. And in the US Senate, they are not going to wait for the President’s decisions, they are already preparing a rigid bill with “devastating” sanctions against Moscow and her “friends”.

Political scientist Vladimir Fesenko It reminds that all the emotional statements of Donald Trump cannot be believed.

– Today he can say one thing, tomorrow – the second, the day after tomorrow – the third. In mid -May, we all got excited when he said he had suspicion that Putin was driving him by his nose and so on. And everyone has already decided that Trump had changed his attitude to Putin. But then Trump said again that he believes that Putin wants to end the war, – the expert said.

If Russia suddenly stops fire, Trump will talk again that the Russian president wants peace.

– So if tomorrow suddenly, and this is expected, Russia will present its allegedly compromise proposal to end the war, Trump can again decide that Putin wants peace. Especially if they pause in shelling of Ukraine. Trump again decides that everything is fine, Putin listened to him and can continue to continue negotiations. Therefore, it is not necessary to draw conclusions due to a separate emotional reaction of Trump. He does not know what to do with this war, he does not have a recipe, unfortunately, – said Vladimir Fesenko.

US to the last pull with sanctions As for the sanctions, according to Vladimir Fesenko, it is like a crush against an elephant. Because the volume of trade between the United States and Russia is minimal – just over $ 3 billion, and this will not affect Russia. And in his opinion, the bill Lindsey Graham Senator-Republican Lindsey Graham is not realistic at all.

– Such tariffs against China and even against India will not be introduced by Americans. With China, they now, on the contrary, agree on a compromise, – says the political scientist.

But subsequently, the US president can change the attitude towards the Russian dictator.

– If Trump repeats this emotion of annoyance, Putin’s dissatisfaction today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, a week, and if it is a stable reaction, a critical attitude to Putin will be fixed. Then there will be prerequisites for Trump’s positions. And a sanction package against Russia in the White House is prepared, and Trump can introduce it even without the approval of Congress, – the expert said.

But for us, in his opinion, not only sanctions against Russia are important. The main priority is American weapons and ammunition. Missiles for Patriot air defense systems, artillery shells.

“It is the restoration of US weapons supply to Ukraine that can be the most effective Trump answer,” the political scientist predicts.

Europe can block the ways of the “shadow fleet” Europe has already introduced a 17th package of sanctions on Russia, but experts call it frankly weak. The next package plans to disconnect about 20 Russian banks from the international payment system SWIFT, as well as a reduction in prices for Russian oil and the introduction of a ban on the Nord Stream gas pipelines. The plan is to offer the Great Seven to reduce the marginal price for Russian oil to $ 45 per barrel. Currently, the oil pricing ceiling from the Russian Federation is $ 60 per barrel.

EU is also going to expand sanctions on The “shadow fleet” of the Russian Federation and considers the possibility of introducing additional restrictions on creditors that help Moscow to continue the war.

-Europe requires at least the strengthening of the 17th package. For example, a ban on the passage of Russian ships through the territorial waters of European countries. It is the Danish Strait, in the Baltic Sea, is cut off by La Cuns. So that the Russians and think about exports of their “left” oil. Then it will be real actions, – says Political scientist Taras Zagorodniy.

The main thing, says the expert that the Russians do not have the opportunity to sell their oil at all.

– That is, do not swing it, the price will be high or low – it does not matter. The main thing is that they cannot sell it. And yet – Europeans need money for Ukraine to provide the army and purchase weapons in the United States, – says Taras Zagorodniy.

The desire of Europe leaders in helping Ukraine, though more noticeable, but still not as powerful as we would like. Photo: president.gov.ua

The Kursk region left and the Russians will try to take up the amounts In military plan, the Ukrainian military actually left the Kursk region of Russia, and the enemy managed to gain a foothold at the bridgehead in Sumy region for further advance in the region. On the map of fighting 62.6 square meters. km in the territory of Sumy region analytics of DeepState project were marked as occupied.

– Well, this is not yet a bridgehead in the Sumy region. The question is whether they will be able to get back there or not. In 2024, we launched a successful operation in the Kursk region to ahead, and it began quite successfully. But then the question of our removal, as the risks of logistics increased, and the Russians began to completely control our supply lines. And we were forced to go to more favorable positions to the Sumy region, – explains Military expert Alexander Kovalenko. – But there is no threat of seizure of Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

Ukraine has become less dependent on the US on weapons Regarding the restriction of US weapons supplies, it is also not critical now for Ukraine.

– We are recently receiving little from the United States. Diversification of supply from other countries, re -export through third countries. The main supplier of weapons is now the Czech Republic, because of it it all goes, – Kovalenko explains.

As for the predictions for the summer, we can observe the first phase of the Russian offensive.

– For Putin, he is crucial, because during this period the Russians will try to occupy the big cities – Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Borova, Kupyansk, perhaps even Lyman. Russian generals received a unambiguous order, and they will try to accomplish these tasks at any cost,-says Alexander Kovalenko.

Source: kp.ua