Short -term Bitcoin owners recorded losses for the first time from January

For the first time since January 2025, short -term bitcoin owners (STH) began to sell the assets. Cryptoquant under the nickname Kripto reported this Mevsimi.

According to him, the SOPR figure for this category of investors has fallen below level 1, which indicates the fixation of losses.

Source: Cryptoquant.

The last situation was observed in January 2025, when the market survived the deepest correction of the current cycle.

The analyst identifies two possible scenarios. The first is the weakening of the impulse. Prolonged loss of losses can precede the recession period when speculative investors leave the market.

The second is a healthy restart. The short -term fall of the indicator is able to displace “weak hands” and open the way for more stable rall.

The expert stressed that bitcoin is consolidated under a strong resistance. The market reaction to sales will be a key indicator: rapid absorption of sellers’ pressure can signal a strong border, otherwise there is a risk of a breakdown trend.

“Bear trap” before growth The developer under the pseudonym Defitracer has drew the community’s attention to the historical pattern in the bull cycles of bitcoin. According to his observation, the current market situation repeats the scenarios of the past years.

Bitcoin Macro Bull-Cycles

2011:
– Duration 9 Months (After Ath)
– Bear Trap in Month 6

2013:
– Duration 9 MONTS
– Bear Trap in Month 6

2017:
– Duration 9 MONTS
– Bear Trap in Month 6

2021:
– Duration 9 MONTS
– Bear Trap in Month 6

2025:
– We Just Entered Month 6…

Do … pic.twitter.com/2vp9a9ylor

– ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ (@defitracer) on August 18 2025

Defitraser analyzed the 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycles. Everyone lasted about nine months after the price was upgraded.

The main feature of all these periods was a significant correction for the sixth month. The analyst described it as a “bear trap” when the market is misleading investors before a new wave of growth.

According to his model, the current cycle, which began in 2025, also entered the sixth month. Defitracer called investors not to panic and not sell assets against the background of quotation reduction.

Weakening of the ascending trend The market width indicator indicates a short -term weakening of the NASDAQ cryptometer and index, said Coindesk analyst Omkar Godbooul. In this case, the long -term trend in both markets remains ascending.

According to TradingView, 63 out of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies are traded above the 200-day simple sliding average (SMA), which is considered a barometer of long-term trends.

At the same time, half of these assets dropped below 50 days of SMA, which reflects a short-term trend. The price below this level indicates a loss of pulse.

The NASDAQ index shows a similar picture: 61 The promotion is trading above 200-day SMA and 49 below 50 days.

According to Godbola, synchronous dynamics indicates a general trend in the markets. Probably traders reduce the risks in anticipation of the head of the head Fed Jerome Powell on a symposium in Jackson Goul.

Signs of overheating ralli bitcoin The price of digital gold has updated the historic maximum, but the next rollback made the traders doubt Ralley. Santiment analysts have identified key onchin metrics that indicate possible overheating of the market.

The main signal is the bear divergence between the price and the volume of transactions. The historic maximum of August 13 was reached at a daily $ 30.88 billion, which is well below the peak $ 48.87 billion a month earlier at a lower price. The growth of quotations on falling volumes often indicates the weak base of Ralley.

Another indicator is a sharp increase in retail activity activity usually associated with Fomo. Over the past nine days, the number of non-zero bitcoin hatry has increased by 470,000, from 55.96 million to 56.43 million. Such a fast influx of new participants has historically preceded correction.

Source: Santiment.

The risks are also confirmed by the MVRV metric, which estimates the average profit or loss of traders. For bitcoin, the 365-day figure is at +21%, which means a significant profit of the average investor and increases the likelihood of fixation.

Source: Santiment.

The situation with Ethereum looks even more risky: its 30-day MVRV has exceeded +15.5%, and 365 days reached +57%. Such high values of unrealized profit have historically signaled the probable correction.

Source: Santiment.

At the same time, large bitcoin owners (10 to 10,000 BTC) continue to accumulate the asset. 72 hours after the maximum updated, this group added 23,000 BTC to their wallets. This whale behavior is a signal and indicates their confidence in the further increase in prices.

Source: Santiment.

We will remind, in July Godbooul warned about the exhaustion of the biped pulse of the bitcoin.

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