“Ukraine launched the “Weapons” program, which should become the basis for expanding the export of defense developments and forming a stable market structure. This will enable the state not only to satisfy its own needs, but also to become a competitive player in the global arms market. How will the “Weapons” program affect the future of Ukraine’s defense industry? Ihor Fedirko, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Association of Arms Manufacturers, tells the story […]”, — write: businessua.com.ua
Ukraine launched the “Weapons” program, which should become the basis for expanding the export of defense developments and forming a stable market structure. This will enable the state not only to satisfy its own needs, but also to become a competitive player in the global arms market. How will the “Weapons” program affect the future of Ukraine’s defense industry? Ihor Fedirko, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Association of Arms Manufacturers, tells the story
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Last week, at the third International Defense Industries Forum DFNC³, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced the launch of the “Weapons” program – the regulated export of Ukrainian defense technologies. It is not just about “realization of surpluses”. It is about creating a sustainable, mature market model where cutting-edge developments are transformed into a world-class industry.
Today, more than 40% of the weapons used on the front line are manufactured in Ukraine or in cooperation with Ukrainian enterprises. The next task is to increase this indicator to 50% in the near future.
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The pace of growth of the defense and industrial sector of Ukraine has long exceeded the pace of partner countries. The time has come to share our experience with our allies, revealing to them the three main advantages of the Ukrainian defense industry.
The first advantage: efficiency of the innovation cycle 11 years of war have created an environment where combat experience instantly becomes an engineering solution. Ukrainian manufacturers operate in a continuous “army-production” cycle, shortening classic R&D cycles from years to weeks.
It is this efficiency and practicality that make Ukrainian products competitive in a world where large defense corporations are used to working more slowly and expensively.
There is currently a debate going on in Europe – how to create a defense procurement system that will take into account the need to update products almost every month? After all, traditionally, long-term contracts provided for the supply of the same product, which means that the product can become obsolete much faster than the end of the contract.
This process is the result of the analysis of the Ukrainian combat experience and the Ukrainian defense industry.
The second advantage: autonomy and flexibility Maritime drones have become a symbol of the superiority of new, flexible autonomous solutions over old, bulky and heavy ones. They changed the balance of power in the Black Sea, confirming the effectiveness of Ukrainian engineers.
The Magura and Sea Baby platforms have demonstrated accuracy, range and endurance in combat. It is these products that will be the first on the list of those allowed for regulated export.
Partners from Europe, Asia and Africa are already showing interest in Ukrainian maritime drones. For many countries, it is a ready-made solution for the protection of ports, energy facilities and maritime logistics.
In recent weeks, Europe has personally felt how real hybrid threats have become. A series of unidentified drone flights over civilian and military airports in Scandinavia at the end of September caused temporary closures, flight delays and, without exaggeration, considerable concern among Europeans.
The demand for counter-drone and EW systems has increased dramatically. Here, Ukraine has what many allies lack: practical experience in countering such attacks.
At the same time, it is important to emphasize: exports are planned as carefully as possible. It is only about those categories that do not pose risks for the defense.
Modern war has already gone beyond “armored logic”. Operational success is determined by mobility, agility and programmatic management. One FPV drone worth about UAH 20,000 can destroy equipment that costs ten times more. This is the main principle of asymmetric warfare – when the result depends not on tonnage, but on intelligence.
Ukrainian maritime drone Magura. Photo by Ulyana Bukatyuk
The third advantage: the price as a consequence of combat optimization Ukrainian anti-tank missile complexes “Stugna-P” and “Barrier” have long confirmed their effectiveness. The cost of one Stugna-P missile in open sources is estimated at about $20,000. This is several times cheaper than Western analogues. This is one of the most vivid examples of how Ukraine combines engineering and economic profitability.
Ukrainian manufacturers compete not due to dumping, but due to combat optimization. For example: the USA in 2023 purchased 106 Teal-2 copters for $1.8 million, that is, about $17,000 per piece. Poland purchased the FlyEye 3.6 complex for over $2 million. Ukrainian analogues perform the same tasks five to seven times cheaper thanks to local production, simplified lo hystics and the absence of redundant components, according to analysts.
A similar trend is observed in the segment of ground robotic systems. Ukrainian developments, which are tested at the Brave1 and “Iron Polygon” testing grounds, cost 5-10 times less than foreign counterparts without losing functionality. This means that combat engineering in Ukraine is not just effective – it is economically justified.
Anti-tank missile complexes “Stugna-P” during the exhibition of Ukrainian military equipment for Independence Day in the center of Kyiv, August 23, 2018. Photo by Getty Images
Key advantage: sustainability for Ukraine Ukraine’s defense export potential ranges from $0.5 billion in the base scenario to $10 billion in the strategic one, according to analytical estimates by the Ukrainian Association of Arms Manufacturers. It is within the framework of Build with Ukraine that a new model of cooperation is being formed: partners open joint production facilities next to our engineers in order to develop technologies together, instead of buying ready-made solutions.
Even individual contracts have a multiplier effect: the sale of one naval drone can finance the production of dozens of FPV drones for the front.
This is the formula of sustainability: export = investment = new opportunities for defense.
Regulated export does not mean free sale of weapons. Each contract will undergo state licensing, end-user verification, re-export ban and post-delivery monitoring.
Export will be possible only where the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fully met. In the event of even a potential shortage, supplies may be suspended.
At the same time, a new institutional base is being formed: the National Arms Export Agency, a network of representative offices in Brussels and Washington, as well as certification ranges according to NATO and EU standards. This will make Ukrainian exports predictable for partners and safe for the state itself.
Balance, not compromise A week has passed since the president’s statement at DFNC³, but there is already a noticeable increase in interest from foreign companies, investors and partners.
In a few days, the number of requests and contacts has increased significantly – from private funds to technology companies that are considering the possibility of joint production or supply. This creates prerequisites for hundreds of new negotiations and potential collaborations, in particular in the form of joint productions and technological alliances.
The main thing in this process is for the state to provide a clear and transparent control mechanism so that exports remain exclusively within the framework of national security.
Ukraine does not sell weapons if they are needed on the front line. Regulated exports are not a threat, but a continuation of the defense strategy. It gives the state a resource to maintain the production rate, retain specialists, attract investments and support the technological modernization of the army.
Ukraine is moving into a new phase – from a country that asks for weapons to a country that supplies them. And it’s not about trading war, but about the ability to guarantee stability for yourself and your allies.
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