“CAUTIUS Optimism Grows for August Rba Cut, But Inflation Data Remains the Key Driver.”, – WRITE: www.fxempire.com
- If the quarterly cpi shops inflation Falling toward the Middle of the Band Over Time, the RBA Can Cut Interest Rates in the Next Meeting.
- We have the Opportunity to Cut Rates Cautotyly and Gradurally As the Rba Didn’t Hike Rates to Levels Seen Elsewhere.
- The RBA Could Cut Rates More Aggressely if Needed.
- On Tariffs, there will be an Impact on US, partly DRIVING DEFLATIONAL FORECASTS, But The IMPACT ON AUSTRALIA WILL LIKELY BE LESS SEVER SEVEREER THANATE. Trade Terms with China Remain Crucial.
- The Reserve Bank Can’s Go Out and Warn Markets Against Rate Cuts Before The Interest Rate Decision.
- Differences Among Board Members Relate to the Timing of Rate Cuts, Not The Direction.
- Households Should be Banking on US to ENSURE INFLATION DOESN’T Get OUT OF HAND AGAIN.
- We’ve Still Got A Low Unemployment Rate Relative to History.
- Provides We Are Still on Top of Inflation and We Are Getting Confirmation, THEN An EASING CYCLE IS Coming.
- House Building Costs and Durable Goods in the MONTHLY CPI Numbers Were Higher than the RBA Thought, Contribution to the Rate Cut Delay.
- If there is an external shock, the rba have room to react.
- We Are Not Keeping Interest Rates High Just in Case. We Are Reacting to The Data.
- If China Bolster Its Economy with Fiscal Stimulus, that Could Cushion the Impact of Tariffs on Australia’s Economy.
Rba surprises markets, fueling aussie dollar demand Earlier on Tuesday, The RBA Caunght Markets by Surprise, Leaving the Cash Rate at 3.85%. Economists Expectored A 25-Basis Point Rate Cut. The Rba Rate Statement Set the Stage for a Testy Press Conference for RBA Governor Michele Bullock.
Expert Views on the Rba Rate Path Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at Amp, Remarked On the RBA’s Interest Rate Decision, Stating:
“RBA SURPRIZED ON HOLD WAITING FOR A MORE INFO INFLATION IS ON TRACK FOR 2.5%. WITH The RBA SEEING INFLATION RISKS MORE BALANCED, REMINING“ CAUTIUS ” Falling to 2.85% But More Slowly with Next Cut in Aug. ”
AUD/USD REACTS TO GOVERNOR MICHELE BULOLOCK’S Q & A SESSION The AUD/USD PAIR Soared in Reaction to the Rba’s Interest Rate Decision, Climbing from $ 0.65120 to A Pre-Press Conference High of 0.65567.
The AUD/USD GAVE UP Some Gains Durying the RBA Press Conference, Falling from $ 0.65427 to A LOW OF $ 0.65263 Before Steadying. The Market Reaction Reflected Heps of An August Rate Cut But A Potentilly Less Dovish Rba Policy Stance, Narrowing The US-Australia Interest Rate Differential in Favor of the Ausie Dollar.
On Tuesday, July 8, The AUD/USD WAS UP 0.66% to $ 0.65333.