“Ukraine’s economy is highly dependent on EU support Photo: Getty Images In 2026, the Ukrainian economy will continue to demonstrate positive dynamics, but the pace of this rise will remain rather modest. The experts analyzed what fundamental factors support the economic well-being of Ukrainians, and what could create threats to stability. The pace of price growth will be moderate, despite the fact that the final indicators are still […]”, — write: businessua.com.ua
Ukraine’s economy is highly dependent on EU support Photo: Getty Images
In 2026, the Ukrainian economy will continue to demonstrate positive dynamics, but the pace of this increases will remain quite modest. The experts analyzed what fundamental factors support the economic well-being of Ukrainians, and what could create threats to stability.
The pace of price growth will be moderate Despite the fact that the final indicators have not yet been approved, according to preliminary data, inflation in 2025 amounted to approximately 9%. That’s higher than analysts’ year-ago forecast of 7.6%, but much better than the spring price growth peak of nearly 16%. Most experts believe that inflation will continue to slow down in 2026. According to the consensus forecast, it will be 7.4%. Similar to economic challenges, military action and its direct and indirect consequences will have a major impact here.
“Important pro-inflationary factors will be tax changes, an increase in the production costs of enterprises, including wage payments, difficulties in logistics, and further destruction of production and warehouse capacities,” explains the director of the strategic management department of Pivdenniy Kostyantyn Khvedchuk.
The Ukrainian Institute of the Future pays close attention to the same aspects.
“The key pro-inflationary factors are of a non-monetary nature: lack of specialists, growing tax pressure, problems in the energy industry, which affect the increase in the cost of production,” experts note.
“The war continues and the losses continue. This should be compensated by price increases,” concludes Nataliya Gorshkova.
The value of the hryvnia will decrease Experts predict a moderate devaluation of the hryvnia this year. Considering that at the moment the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar is 42.72, according to the consensus forecast, it will reach the level of 44.55 in a year. Therefore, the hryvnia will lose about 4.3% of its value. The main argument of experts in support of the hryvnia is the significant currency reserves of the National Bank, which reached almost $57.3 billion at the beginning of the year. In addition, the already agreed aid from the European Union should ensure Ukraine’s basic needs in currency. On the other hand, Ukraine has a significant foreign trade deficit and, according to experts, it may increase even more this year.
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