Price forecast for apples for Ukraine, Moldova and Poland will disappoint consumers

Apples Photo: Informant

In 2025, spring frosts caused serious damage to Yabluna harvests in Ukraine, Poland and Moldova, which sharply reduced export deliveries and It has been provoked for the third year in a row. According to the presentation of FAO economist Andriy Yarmak on Prognosfruit 2025, the domestic prices for apples in Ukraine reached such levels that manufacturers and traders lost their interest in their export. In addition, Ukraine imported apples from Poland from April to June 2025 because of the attempts of producers to quickly sell products during Russia’s continued attacks on energy infrastructure.

In Moldova and Poland, exports have also decreased due to fruit deficiency. The cost of production increased against the background of the crop and record prices for apple juice concentrate (AJC). The high global demand for AJC limited the availability of budget apples in the fresh fruit segment, which, in turn, increased the average profit of farmers.

The spring frosts of 2025 re -affected the gardens in these countries, and was less critical than the Ukrainian consequences of 2024. However, Polish and Moldovan agrarians predict a further decline in apple production.

Despite the decrease in productivity in Moldova and Poland, market participants retain careful optimism, counting on high prices. Limited deliveries throughout Eastern Europe can increase the pressure on the EU pricing, which is the main export consumer.

The WAPA report on Prognosfruit 2025 indicates the instability of the apple market: production in the EU is expected at 10.5 million tons, which is only 0.1 % less than last year, but 7.5 % below the average in the last 3-5 years. Eastern European risks, along with deficiency, can continue to stimulate prices.

If prices in the region rise again, it will become a unique event, as wholesale variants have never increased for more than two consecutive seasons. Possible historical maximums of prices will also affect consumer interests. High prices can stimulate Ukraine to increase exports, but the domestic market will continue to feel the pressure.

As it was reported earlier, low yields in 2024 due to anomalous heat caused a blow to agriculture of Ukraine, slowed exports and economic growth. Imported vegetables and fruits have led to food inflation. Unfortunately, the situation of 2025 is also unsatisfactory: 90% of peaches in the market are imported, and apples reached record prices compared to previous years and the country’s independence period.

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