Political scientist Elijah Kusa about the differences of the US and the EU and what is threatening Ukraine

Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP Via Getty Images

After the Paris meeting on September 4, the leaders of the “determination coalition” held negotiations with Donald Trump. According to information sources, dialogue was tense, with the exchange of mutual accusations.

What caused the situation, which is based on Trump’s unprecedentedness, as is reflected in the general picture, what methods Europe can counteract the pressure of the overseas ally and what consequences it has for Ukraine – journalist Briefly about discussed with Expert on the International Policy of the Analytical Center “Ukrainian Institute of the Future” by Ilya Psus.

Argue through security guarantees for Ukraine – Donald Trump’s last conversation with European leaders confirmed the existence of differences between Europe and the US. What is their cause?

Political scientist Elijah Kus. Photo: uifuture.org

– Currently, the key point of conflict is the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine and the degree of US participation in this process. European countries expect a more active position in Kiev’s military support from Washington. On the other hand, the US administration seeks to limit themselves to minor functions, since Trump has repeatedly stated that there is no priority of this direction. It is ready to promote Europe, but to avoid direct interference with the supply of weapons or funding of Ukraine. Its strategy implies that the main burden of creating a new security system around Ukraine should lie in European countries, while the United States will remain in the background. Europeans also emphasize the need to strengthen transatlantic coordination within NATO.

– Why is Europe so hesitant to behave with Trump?

– European leaders do not have effective instruments for influencing it and the US as a whole. In addition, EU countries have significant differences in future transatlantic relations. Some of the states insist on the need to return to the former model of cooperation, others believe that changes to the US position have become long -term. The third group proposes to take a waiting position until Trump’s presidential term is over.

In addition, the situation is complicated by the contradiction between the need to increase defense expenditures and the desire to preserve the social model of the state formed after the Second World War. For many countries, rejection of social programs in favor of military investments is unacceptable, which partly explains the growing popularity of Eurosceptics.

Europeans are lavatory between their interests, interests of Ukraine and Trump’s desires – And how do Europe need to deal with Trump in this situation?

-The most radical option would be to apply trade and economic sanctions, but the EU is not ready for such steps due to high potential losses and doubts about efficiency. The experience of past negotiations between the EU and the US has proven that both parties avoid protracted conflicts in this area.

In addition, some European politicians are afraid that the Trade War will strengthen China’s position. Therefore, the only real way is to balance between Trump’s own needs, the support of Ukraine, and the formation of a new security architecture without the dominant role of the United States. This process is inevitable, but it will take time.

– Trump demands that Europe stop buying oil in Russia. It is good for the US and Ukraine, but will it take this ultimatum?

– The strategy of reducing dependence on Russian energy is approved in the EU, but its implementation is designed for a long period. Particular difficulties arise in Central and Eastern Europe, where energy infrastructure is closely linked to Russian suppliers.

– The US president also demands that Europeans abandon cooperation with China. Will they go to it?

– A complete break of economic ties with China is impossible. It is likely that it will be a restriction in strategic industries – high technology or defense industry. In the rest of the areas, China will remain a key EU trading partner.

NATO will remain but with the intensification of the European component – Trump periodically threatens to withdraw US troops from Europe. How will it affect the overall safety design?

– The full withdrawal of troops is unlikely, but the contraction of the contingent in certain regions is possible. For example, the US may increase the presence in Poland while reducing it in other countries. The main trend is the gradual transfer of responsibility for European security to Europeans themselves.

– Trump’s cool attitude to NATO “will” get “the Alliance or not?

– The Alliance will continue its existence, but its functions in Europe will change. Some American analysts propose to reorient NATO on global tasks, including restraining China. However, the main scenario remains a pragmatic cooperation with the growth of European responsibility.

Ukraine needs to prepare for a reduction in US support – Why does Trump not want to give Ukraine security with Europe?

– Washington offers a limited model of participation, which will allow the freedom of maneuver in future relations with Russia. This is contrary to European expectations for close coordination, but opens the US for commercial agreements with Moscow.

– How do all these contradictions between the US and Europe in general affect Ukraine’s interests?

– They will determine the balance between the European and American contribution to the new security system to which Ukraine will attach. Kiev should be expected to reduce the role of the United States, as the EU actually agrees with Trump’s position.

– Europe can completely replace the US on the financing and supply of weapons to Ukraine?

– There is an opportunity, but it will take several years for a full transition.

“Trumpism” will remain even when Trump himself goes – And what can all these contradictions between the US and Europe lead to globally?

– Europe is faced with the choice: to form autonomous security structures or count on the restoration of relationships after Trump. Both paths have risks, especially against the backdrop of a single strategy among Member States.

– And if Trump goes after his cadence, can everything go back in the relationship between Europe and the US, are it already irreversible processes?

– Trumpism ideas in US foreign policy have widespread support among Republicans and meet the long -term interests of the country. Even the change of the President is unlikely to completely abolish this course, since a democratic alternative has not yet been formed.

Source: kp.ua