Military Expert on Front in the fall: Russia is not capable of a decisive breakthrough

Photo: the General Staff of the Armed Forces

The last stages of negotiations on the end of the war in Ukraine have demonstrated the lack of a desire to stop aggressive actions in Russia. The Kremlin seeks to show at least some visible success in the battlefield to use it as a basis for new negotiations and to legalize control over the captured Ukrainian territories, which will allow to put forward even more unrealistic conditions.

Journalists Briefly about Together with by military analyst Ivan Timochko investigated which Events can be predicted on the front in the fall and what strategies Ukraine will apply for pressure on the occupier in order to achieve fair conditions of peace.

The continuity of the Russians in the fall will meet obstacles – Russia has actually disrupted the next round of negotiations, which means that it will try again to activate on the line of contact. What to expect in the autumn at the front?

Military expert Ivan Timochko. Photo: FB Ivan Timochko

– In my opinion, there will be no significant changes in the dynamics of hostilities. This is due to the inability to carry out general mobilization to replenish its military units. Even if the call is announced, the occupier will take at least two months to prepare recruits. In addition, they need to transfer the technique to the front, organize logistics and reconcile strategic goals – all this takes time.

Seasonal factors also play a role: autumn rains, blurred roads and light day reductions will complicate the offensive actions of the Russians. The enemy has a limited number of night observation devices, which makes their night operations less effective.

Today, the Russians operate on the verge of their capabilities. The commander of Sirsky reported the release of three settlements, and the attempt of the occupiers to start the offensive under the Dobropillya failed with the subsequent defeat of their groups.

In the northern directions of Slobozhanshchyna and Sumy region, despite the rotation and transfer of Crimean units, the enemy lost control of a number of villages.

– Where are the large -scale offensive attempts by the Russians?

– Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Liman direction, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk.

– Will the occupiers be surrounded by Pokrovsk?

– No, because they need to significantly enhance the grouping, which is impossible at this time. The city has powerful defensive lines integrated with Mirnograd, which will be a serious obstacle.

– Is it true that more than 100 thousand Russian military is concentrated in the Pokrovsky direction?

– Today – yes, but the maximum number of their grouping here reached 150 thousand. Now the number has decreased and there is no significant reinforcement. Despite the rotation and transfer of marines and drone operators, the situation remains stable.

Blows on Russian refineries weaken the economy of the aggressor – What are the expectations in the Zaporozhye direction?

– It is difficult to make accurate forecasts, but the enemy’s likely attempts to move along the Dnieper to create distracting maneuvers.

– Is Ukraine enough to counteract the offensive to Pokrovsk or Zaporozhye?

– Of course, the enemy is aware of the possibility of a powerful counter -struggle. It is still impractical to detail our strength in these areas.

– Are Russia’s refineries capable of causing critical damage to its economy?

-Undoubtedly, because these objects form the basis of the budget of the aggressor country and provide fuel with its army. The destruction of such objects is a direct blow to Russia’s economic stability.

Given the technological complexity of the recovery of refineries, their destruction deepens the crisis and violates the logistics of the enemy. After Ukrainian blows, oil prices were increased due to fears of export reduction.

In Russia, the deficit of airflows and gasoline is being deficient. However, it is worth remembering that Putin is ready to pick up the latter from citizens to support the army.

– Does it contribute to Ukraine or Russia?

– Time remains a neutral factor. The situation may be changed by unforeseen circumstances: interference by third countries, decisions of world leaders, or activation of the states of “evil” (North Korea, Iran, China) that support the aggressor.

Putin views war as a instrument of conservation of dictatorship – When, in your opinion, will Russia agree to a truce or negotiation?

– It’s hard to predict. For Putin, this war is a matter of survival. He will constantly look for new reasons for escalation. Changes are possible only by internal rebellion in the army or the complete collapse of the Russian economy.

– Will the United States and Donald Trump continue to press on Ukraine on territorial concessions?

– Trump is focused on his own enrichment and interests of American elites. His policy on Ukraine can be aimed at rapid peace through concessions, especially given our dependence on US support.

– That is not to rely on it?

– Ukraine must count on its own strength. Only effective resistance guarantees the support of allies. Weakness also provokes the desire to intervene in our affairs for our own benefits.

Source: kp.ua